Touchdown picks
Every player’s chance to score in week 8 next to the books’ Anytime TD price, and his chance to score his game’s first touchdown.
For Pro members
- Every player’s chance to score a touchdown this week, next to the books’ best Anytime TD price
- Touchdown picks (Beta): where our chance beats the price’s break-even
- His chance to score his game’s first touchdown, and the fair price for both
How we tested it
Built on the 2024 season, then checked on all 3,247 player-games of 2025, a season it never saw. Only what was known before each game was used: the player’s recent touchdowns, his share of his team’s carries and targets, and how many points the betting market expected his team to score.
- Our modelError score 0.168lower is better
- Just his own touchdown rateError score 0.177
- Same chance for every player at his positionError score 0.182
When we said 0-10%, they scored 6.0%; 10-20%, they scored 14.1%; 20-30%, they scored 23.6%; 30-40%, they scored 34.7%; 40-50%, they scored 37.9%; 50-60%, they scored 56.0%. Our top three in each game scored 40.6% of the time (we said 42.5%). For the first touchdown, our numbers beat an even split across the players in the game (error 0.0530 vs 0.0544).
Better than the simple rules doesn’t mean better than the sportsbooks. These picks are in testing against real touchdown prices from this week on; the record will be on this page.