Champions League props Research
Research, not picks: a new model being graded in the open. The lines below where our chance clears the price are logged and graded, losses included, and become picks only once 50 are graded (8 so far). Until then nothing here is a recommendation.
Record
2-6, -1.9 units at the price shown (1 unit a pick), 1 void (the player didn't play).
| Pick | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal 1+ assist · BAR vs PSG · 10/20 | +175 | Loss (0) |
| Ousmane Dembélé 1+ assist · PSG vs BAR · 10/20 | +300 | Loss (0) |
| Fermín López Anytime goal · BAR vs PSG · 10/20 | +250 | Loss (0) |
| Andreas Helmersen Anytime goal · BODO vs NAP · 10/20 | +290 | Win (1) |
| Fredrik André Bjørkan 1+ shot · BODO vs NAP · 10/20 | +170 | Loss (0) |
| Stanislav Lobotka 1+ shot on target · NAP vs BODO · 10/20 | +290 | Loss (0) |
| Víctor Muñoz Anytime goal · LIV vs VIL · 10/20 | +245 | Void |
| Renato Veiga 1+ shot · VIL vs LIV · 10/20 | +210 | Loss (0) |
| Sergiño Dest 1+ shot · PSV vs FCP · 10/20 | +120 | Win (2) |
For Pro members
- Champions League player props (research, graded in the open): where our chance beats the best book price’s break-even
- Every priced line for each match: shots on target, shots, anytime goal and assists, with our chance next to the price
- His expected shots if he starts, adjusted for the opponent and for how strong his league is
How the model tested
Every start since 2026-10-17, predicted from only what we knew the day before, compared with his own recent hit rate (the “look at his last 8” method). Lower error is better.
| Stat | Starts | Real hit rate | Our average | Our error | His-own-rate error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goal | 929 | 14% | 15% | 0.351 | 0.386 |
| Assist | 929 | 11% | 12% | 0.354 | 0.385 |
| Shots | 2787 | 38% | 38% | 0.479 | 0.512 |
| Shots on target | 1858 | 22% | 21% | 0.408 | 0.443 |
Beta: a new model on two Champions League matchdays of data. Prices are the best of FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics when we took them, updated Oct 30, 6:21 PM ET; yours may differ. Player props are not legal in every state. 21+ · Gamble responsibly.