ARI @ SF
Week 3 · Final: ARI 30, SF 36
Trey McBride · Under 7.5 receptions Miss · 9
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Demarcus Robinson · 20+ receiving yards Did not play research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Miss
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Trey McBride · Under 7.5 receptions Miss · 9
Details
DraftKings: Under 7.5 receptions (-148).
Our number: 7.4. SF is tough on tight ends, expected game flow helps him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Michael Wilson · Under 4.5 receptions Miss · 11
Details
Fanatics: Under 4.5 receptions (-195).
Our number: 3.4. SF is tough on receivers, expected game flow helps him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Marvin Harrison Jr. · Under 29.5 rec yds Miss · 40
Details
DraftKings: Under 29.5 rec yds (-114).
Our number: 20. SF is tough on receivers, expected game flow helps him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Deebo Samuel Sr. · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 0
Details
Graded against an estimated line of 3.5, not a sportsbook line.
Our number: 3.2. Includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Kendrick Bourne · Under 28.5 rec yds Hit · 22
Details
Graded against an estimated line of 28.5, not a sportsbook line.
Our number: 26. SF is tough on receivers, expected game flow helps him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: SF by 13.7. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 45 (SF 29, ARI 16). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Demarcus Robinson · 20+ receiving yards Did not play
Fair price for our chance: -300. Other rungs: 25+ about 64% (fair -175).
George Kittle · 20+ receiving yards Hit · 82
Fair price for our chance: -296. Other rungs: 30+ about 66% (fair -193) · 40+ about 63% (fair -169) · 50+ about 60% (fair -151).
Brock Purdy · 10+ rushing yards Hit · 34
Fair price for our chance: -292.
Pregame leans for SF
Deebo Samuel Sr. · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 0
Pregame leans for ARI
Trey McBride · Under 7.5 receptions Miss · 9
Michael Wilson · Under 4.5 receptions Miss · 11
Marvin Harrison Jr. · Under 29.5 rec yds Miss · 40
Kendrick Bourne · Under 28.5 rec yds Hit · 22