KC @ MIA
Week 3 · Final: KC 24, MIA 10
Patrick Mahomes · Under 18.5 rush yds Hit · 1
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.De'Von Achane · 2+ receptions Miss research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Patrick Mahomes · Under 18.5 rush yds Hit · 1
Details
DraftKings: Under 18.5 rush yds (-113).
Our number: 18. MIA is tough on quarterbacks, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Travis Kelce · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 2
Details
DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (-117).
Our number: 4.3. Expected game flow works against him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Kenneth Walker III · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 2
Details
Fanatics: Under 3.5 receptions (-155).
Our number: 3.3. Includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Rashee Rice · Under 4.5 receptions Miss · 7
Details
DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (-156).
Our number: 4. Expected game flow works against him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
De'Von Achane · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 0
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (-121).
Our number: 2.9. Includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No edge. Our number: KC by 11.9, close to the line.
We expect about 48 (MIA 18, KC 30). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
De'Von Achane · 2+ receptions Miss · 0
Fair price for our chance: -283.
Rashee Rice · 20+ receiving yards Hit · 88
Fair price for our chance: -268. Other rungs: 30+ about 63% (fair -170).
Kenneth Walker III · 2+ receptions Hit · 2
Fair price for our chance: -254.
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Achane 2+ + Rice 20+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: -110.
3-leg parlay · Achane 2+ + Rice 20+ + III 2+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: +159.
Pregame leans for MIA
De'Von Achane · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 0
Pregame leans for KC
Patrick Mahomes · Under 18.5 rush yds Hit · 1
Travis Kelce · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 2
Kenneth Walker III · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 2
Rashee Rice · Under 4.5 receptions Miss · 7