LA @ DEN
Week 3 · Final: LA 26, DEN 30
Evan Engram · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 0
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Pat Bryant · 2+ receptions Hit research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Miss
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Evan Engram · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 0
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (-101).
Our number: 2.4. Expected game flow helps him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Davante Adams · Under 75.5 rec yds Miss · 137
Details
FanDuel: Under 75.5 rec yds (-114).
Our number: 74. DEN is tough on receivers, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Bo Nix · Under 17.5 rush yds Hit · 7
Details
DraftKings: Under 17.5 rush yds (-114).
Our number: 17. LA is tough on quarterbacks, expected game flow helps him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Jaylen Waddle · Under 55.5 rec yds Hit · 10
Details
Fanatics: Under 55.5 rec yds (-105).
Our number: 39. LA is tough on receivers, expected game flow helps him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Blake Corum · Over 45.5 rush yds Miss · 15
Details
Fanatics: Over 45.5 rush yds (-135).
Our number: 62. DEN gives up a lot to running backs, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: LA by 3.5. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 39 (DEN 18, LA 21). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Pat Bryant · 2+ receptions Hit · 2
Fair price for our chance: -319. Other rungs: 3+ about 63% (fair -172).
Matthew Stafford · 225+ passing yards Hit · 390
Fair price for our chance: -271. Other rungs: 175+ about 81% (fair -424) · 200+ about 75% (fair -298) · 250+ about 64% (fair -174).
Kyren Williams · 60+ rushing yards Hit · 88
Fair price for our chance: -269. Other rungs: 50+ about 77% (fair -329) · 70+ about 61% (fair -156).
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Bryant 2+ + Stafford 225+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: -119.
3-leg parlay · Bryant 2+ + Stafford 225+ + Williams 60+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: +147.
Pregame leans for DEN
Evan Engram · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 0
Bo Nix · Under 17.5 rush yds Hit · 7
Jaylen Waddle · Under 55.5 rec yds Hit · 10
Pregame leans for LA
Davante Adams · Under 75.5 rec yds Miss · 137
Blake Corum · Over 45.5 rush yds Miss · 15