LAC @ BUF
Week 3 · Final: LAC 16, BUF 24
Omarion Hampton · Under 60.5 rush yds Hit · 56
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Khalil Shakir · 20+ receiving yards Miss research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Hit
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Omarion Hampton · Under 60.5 rush yds Hit · 56
Details
DraftKings: Under 60.5 rush yds (-111).
Our number: 60. Includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Tre Harris · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 6
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (+103).
Our number: 2.2. BUF gives up a lot to receivers, expected game flow helps him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Quentin Johnston · Under 35.5 rec yds Miss · 40
Details
DraftKings: Under 35.5 rec yds (-109).
Our number: 33. BUF gives up a lot to receivers, expected game flow helps him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
James Cook · Under 1.5 receptions Hit · 0
Details
DraftKings: Under 1.5 receptions (+137).
Our number: 1.3. Includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Khalil Shakir · Under 39.5 rec yds Hit · 6
Details
DraftKings: Under 39.5 rec yds (-111).
Our number: 35. LAC gives up a lot to receivers, expected game flow works against him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: BUF by 13.0. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 54 (BUF 34, LAC 21). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Khalil Shakir · 20+ receiving yards Miss · 6
Fair price for our chance: -290.
Dalton Kincaid · 30+ receiving yards Hit · 38
Fair price for our chance: -278. Other rungs: 40+ about 60% (fair -151).
Omarion Hampton · 40+ rushing yards Hit · 56
Fair price for our chance: -275. Other rungs: 30+ about 81% (fair -424) · 50+ about 62% (fair -165).
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Shakir 20+ + Kincaid 30+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: -114.
3-leg parlay · Shakir 20+ + Kincaid 30+ + Hampton 40+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: +149.
Pregame leans for BUF
James Cook · Under 1.5 receptions Hit · 0
Khalil Shakir · Under 39.5 rec yds Hit · 6
Pregame leans for LAC
Omarion Hampton · Under 60.5 rush yds Hit · 56
Tre Harris · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 6
Quentin Johnston · Under 35.5 rec yds Miss · 40