LV @ NO
Week 3 · Final: LV 35, NO 27
Ashton Jeanty · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 3
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Chris Olave · 4+ receptions Hit research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Hit
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Ashton Jeanty · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 3
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (+113).
Our number: 3.3. NO gives up a lot to running backs, expected game flow works against him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Devaughn Vele · Under 49.5 rec yds Hit · 39
Details
DraftKings: Under 49.5 rec yds (-113).
Our number: 49. Includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Tre Tucker · Under 41.5 rec yds Miss · 43
Details
DraftKings: Under 41.5 rec yds (-114).
Our number: 40. Expected game flow works against him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Tyler Shough · Under 15.5 rush yds Miss · 36
Details
DraftKings: Under 15.5 rush yds (-108).
Our number: 14. Includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Chris Olave · Under 6.5 receptions Miss · 9
Details
Fanatics: Under 6.5 receptions (-170).
Our number: 6. LV is tough on receivers, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: LV by 3.0. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 42 (NO 19, LV 22). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Chris Olave · 4+ receptions Hit · 9
Fair price for our chance: -295. Other rungs: 5+ about 64% (fair -180) · 6+ about 60% (fair -151).
Devaughn Vele · 30+ receiving yards Hit · 39
Fair price for our chance: -291. Other rungs: 40+ about 63% (fair -170).
Ashton Jeanty · 40+ rushing yards Hit · 56
Fair price for our chance: -286. Other rungs: 50+ about 65% (fair -183).
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Olave 4+ + Vele 30+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: -119.
3-leg parlay · Olave 4+ + Vele 30+ + Jeanty 40+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: +143.
Pregame leans for NO
Devaughn Vele · Under 49.5 rec yds Hit · 39
Tyler Shough · Under 15.5 rush yds Miss · 36
Chris Olave · Under 6.5 receptions Miss · 9
Pregame leans for LV
Ashton Jeanty · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 3
Tre Tucker · Under 41.5 rec yds Miss · 43