NE @ JAX
Week 3 · Final: NE 6, JAX 35
Brenton Strange · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 3
?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Brian Thomas Jr. · 20+ receiving yards Miss research
?
Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge Hit
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Brenton Strange · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 3
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (+136).
Our number: 2.4. NE is tough on tight ends, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Mack Hollins · Under 33.5 rec yds Miss · 87
Details
DraftKings: Under 33.5 rec yds (-112).
Our number: 33. Expected game flow helps him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Jakobi Meyers · Under 35.5 rec yds Miss · 64
Details
DraftKings: Under 35.5 rec yds (-114).
Our number: 35. Includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Drake Maye · Under 25.5 rush yds Hit · 18
Details
Lucky win: 21 yds wiped out by penalties.
DraftKings: Under 25.5 rush yds (-111).
Our number: 25. JAX gives up a lot to quarterbacks, expected game flow helps him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Brian Thomas Jr. · Under 37.5 rec yds Hit · 8
Details
DraftKings: Under 37.5 rec yds (-111).
Our number: 34. Includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No edge. Our number: JAX by 2.5, close to the line.
We expect about 37 (JAX 20, NE 17). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Brian Thomas Jr. · 20+ receiving yards Miss · 8
Fair price for our chance: -291. Other rungs: 30+ about 66% (fair -195).
Hunter Henry · 2+ receptions Miss · 1
Fair price for our chance: -291.
Drake Maye · 175+ passing yards Hit · 199
Fair price for our chance: -277. Other rungs: 200+ about 64% (fair -177).
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Jr. 20+ + Henry 2+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: -118.
3-leg parlay · Jr. 20+ + Henry 2+ + Maye 175+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: +146.
Pregame leans for JAX
Brenton Strange · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 3
Jakobi Meyers · Under 35.5 rec yds Miss · 64
Brian Thomas Jr. · Under 37.5 rec yds Hit · 8
Pregame leans for NE
Mack Hollins · Under 33.5 rec yds Miss · 87
Drake Maye · Under 25.5 rush yds Hit · 18