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SEA @ WAS

Week 3 · Final: SEA 31, WAS 33

Best bet

Terry McLaurin · Under 43.5 rec yds Miss · 77

Safest bet
?A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba · 70+ receiving yards Hit research

Game call
?Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.

No edge Hit

Pregame leans
?The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.

Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.

1

Terry McLaurin · Under 43.5 rec yds Miss · 77

Details

DraftKings: Under 43.5 rec yds (-112).

Our number: 40. SEA is tough on receivers, expected game flow works against him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.

2

Cooper Kupp · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 4

Details

DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (-145).

Our number: 2.3. WAS gives up a lot to receivers, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.

3

AJ Barner · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 5

Details

DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (+101).

Our number: 1.9. WAS is tough on tight ends, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.

4

Stefon Diggs · Over 3.5 receptions Hit · 4

Details

DraftKings: Over 3.5 receptions (-158).

Our number: 4.1. SEA is tough on receivers, expected game flow works against him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.

5

Rashid Shaheed · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 2

Details

DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (-135).

Our number: 1.8. WAS gives up a lot to receivers, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.

Game call

Spread

No edge. Our number: SEA by 8.4, close to the line.

Total points

We expect about 45 (WAS 18, SEA 27). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.

24.0SEA score a game
28.7WAS allow a game
22.0WAS score a game
17.9SEA allow a game

More options

Safer bets (alt lines) · research
?A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.

Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba · 70+ receiving yards Hit · 128

Fair price for our chance: -285. Other rungs: 80+ about 65% (fair -182).

Jayden Daniels · 20+ rushing yards Did not play

Fair price for our chance: -272. Other rungs: 15+ about 75% (fair -307) · 25+ about 63% (fair -172).

Stefon Diggs · 30+ receiving yards Hit · 33

Fair price for our chance: -267. Other rungs: 20+ about 73% (fair -275).

Pregame leans for WAS

1

Terry McLaurin · Under 43.5 rec yds Miss · 77

2

Stefon Diggs · Over 3.5 receptions Hit · 4

Pregame leans for SEA

1

Cooper Kupp · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 4

2

AJ Barner · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 5

3

Rashid Shaheed · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 2