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TEN @ NYG

Week 3 · Final: TEN 7, NYG 12

Best bet

Gunnar Helm · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 2

Safest bet
?A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.

Cam Skattebo · 30+ rushing yards Hit research

Game call
?Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.

No edge Miss

Pregame leans
?The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.

Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.

1

Gunnar Helm · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 2

Details

DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (+102).

Our number: 2.5. NYG gives up a lot to tight ends, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.

2

Malik Nabers · Under 4.5 receptions Miss · 5

Details

DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (-116).

Our number: 4.2. TEN gives up a lot to receivers, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.

3

Isaiah Likely · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 2

Details

DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (+103).

Our number: 2.9. Includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.

4

Cam Skattebo · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 3

Details

DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (-184).

Our number: 2.3. TEN is tough on running backs, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.

5

Cam Ward · Under 13.5 rush yds Hit · 2

Details

DraftKings: Under 13.5 rush yds (-117).

Our number: 8. NYG is tough on quarterbacks, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.

Game call

Spread

No edge. Our number: NYG by 0.1, close to the line.

Total points

We expect about 48 (NYG 24, TEN 24). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.

15.4TEN score a game
23.0NYG allow a game
23.3NYG score a game
22.3TEN allow a game

More options

Safer bets (alt lines) · research
?A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.

Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.

Cam Skattebo · 30+ rushing yards Hit · 60

Fair price for our chance: -300. Other rungs: 40+ about 65% (fair -189) · 50+ about 61% (fair -156).

Tony Pollard · 40+ rushing yards Hit · 74

Fair price for our chance: -286. Other rungs: 50+ about 64% (fair -177) · 60+ about 60% (fair -151).

Wan'Dale Robinson · 2+ receptions Hit · 7

Fair price for our chance: -275. Other rungs: 3+ about 64% (fair -175) · 4+ about 60% (fair -151).

Small parlays · research

2-leg parlay · Skattebo 30+ + Pollard 40+ Hit

Fair price for our chance: -118.

3-leg parlay · Skattebo 30+ + Pollard 40+ + Robinson 2+ Hit

Fair price for our chance: +145.

Pregame leans for NYG

1

Malik Nabers · Under 4.5 receptions Miss · 5

2

Isaiah Likely · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 2

3

Cam Skattebo · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 3

Pregame leans for TEN

1

Gunnar Helm · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 2

2

Cam Ward · Under 13.5 rush yds Hit · 2