DAL @ HOU
Week 4 · Final: DAL 34, HOU 30
Jake Ferguson · Under 24.5 rec yds Hit · 11
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Dalton Schultz · 30+ receiving yards Miss research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Hit
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Jake Ferguson · Under 24.5 rec yds Hit · 11
Details
DraftKings: Under 24.5 rec yds (-110).
Our number: 24. HOU gives up a lot to tight ends, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Javonte Williams · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 5
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (+103).
Our number: 2.3. HOU is tough on running backs, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Kayshon Boutte · Under 24.5 rec yds Miss · 36
Details
DraftKings: Under 24.5 rec yds (-112).
Our number: 22. DAL is tough on receivers, expected game flow helps him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Woody Marks · Under 37.5 rush yds Hit · 22
Details
DraftKings: Under 37.5 rush yds (-114).
Our number: 31. DAL gives up a lot to running backs, expected game flow helps him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going down.
George Pickens · Under 67.5 rec yds Miss · 75
Details
DraftKings: Under 67.5 rec yds (-113).
Our number: 55. HOU gives up a lot to receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: DAL by 2.1. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 52 (HOU 25, DAL 27). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Dalton Schultz · 30+ receiving yards Miss · 9
Fair price for our chance: -300. Other rungs: 20+ about 82% (fair -449).
CeeDee Lamb · 5+ receptions Hit · 17
Fair price for our chance: -267. Other rungs: 6+ about 63% (fair -172).
Jake Ferguson · 2+ receptions Hit · 3
Fair price for our chance: -267.
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Schultz 30+ + Lamb 5+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: -114.
3-leg parlay · Schultz 30+ + Lamb 5+ + Ferguson 2+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: +152.
Pregame leans for HOU
Kayshon Boutte · Under 24.5 rec yds Miss · 36
Woody Marks · Under 37.5 rush yds Hit · 22
Pregame leans for DAL
Jake Ferguson · Under 24.5 rec yds Hit · 11
Javonte Williams · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 5
George Pickens · Under 67.5 rec yds Miss · 75