DEN @ SF
Week 4 · Final: DEN 14, SF 24
George Kittle · Under 60.5 rec yds Miss · 70
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Courtland Sutton · 2+ receptions Miss research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Hit
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
George Kittle · Under 60.5 rec yds Miss · 70
Details
Fanatics: Under 60.5 rec yds (+100).
Our number: 60. DEN gives up a lot to tight ends, expected game flow works against him, his playing time is going up.
Christian McCaffrey · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 3
Details
DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (+108).
Our number: 4.2. DEN gives up a lot to running backs, his playing time is going up.
Courtland Sutton · Under 38.5 rec yds Hit · 4
Details
DraftKings: Under 38.5 rec yds (-115).
Our number: 31. Expected game flow helps him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Pat Bryant · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 3
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (-136).
Our number: 1.9. Expected game flow helps him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
J.K. Dobbins · Under 59.5 rush yds Hit · 40
Details
DraftKings: Under 59.5 rush yds (-111).
Our number: 45. Based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: SF by 13.0. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 50 (SF 31, DEN 18). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Courtland Sutton · 2+ receptions Miss · 1
Fair price for our chance: -267.
Pregame leans for SF
George Kittle · Under 60.5 rec yds Miss · 70
Christian McCaffrey · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 3
Pregame leans for DEN
Courtland Sutton · Under 38.5 rec yds Hit · 4
Pat Bryant · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 3
J.K. Dobbins · Under 59.5 rush yds Hit · 40