IND @ WAS
Week 4 · Final: IND 30, WAS 13
Tyler Warren · Under 5.5 receptions Hit · 5
?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Jayden Daniels · 20+ rushing yards Did not play research
?
Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Miss
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Tyler Warren · Under 5.5 receptions Hit · 5
Details
DraftKings: Under 5.5 receptions (-137).
Our number: 5.4. Based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Stefon Diggs · Under 43.5 rec yds Hit · 35
Details
Lucky win: 21 yds wiped out by penalties.
DraftKings: Under 43.5 rec yds (-114).
Our number: 41. IND gives up a lot to receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Keenan Allen · Over 30.5 rec yds Did not play
Details
Fanatics: Over 30.5 rec yds (-140).
Our number: 31. WAS gives up a lot to receivers, his playing time is going up.
Josh Downs · Under 63.5 rec yds Hit · 16
Details
DraftKings: Under 63.5 rec yds (-111).
Our number: 57. WAS gives up a lot to receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going down.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Under 54.5 rush yds Hit · 15
Details
DraftKings: Under 54.5 rush yds (-114).
Our number: 48. IND gives up a lot to running backs, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: WAS by 3.6. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 53 (WAS 28, IND 25). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Jayden Daniels · 20+ rushing yards Did not play
Fair price for our chance: -270. Other rungs: 15+ about 75% (fair -300) · 25+ about 63% (fair -170).
Jonathan Taylor · 2+ receptions Miss · 1
Fair price for our chance: -267.
Keenan Allen · 2+ receptions Did not play
Fair price for our chance: -227. Other rungs: 3+ about 65% (fair -187) · 4+ about 60% (fair -151).
Pregame leans for WAS
Stefon Diggs · Under 43.5 rec yds Hit · 35
Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Under 54.5 rush yds Hit · 15
Pregame leans for IND
Tyler Warren · Under 5.5 receptions Hit · 5
Keenan Allen · Over 30.5 rec yds Did not play
Josh Downs · Under 63.5 rec yds Hit · 16