KC @ LV
Week 4 · Final: KC 30, LV 27
Ashton Jeanty · Under 55.5 rush yds Miss · 58
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Tre Tucker · 20+ receiving yards Hit research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Hit
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Ashton Jeanty · Under 55.5 rush yds Miss · 58
Details
Fanatics: Under 55.5 rush yds (+100).
Our number: 55. KC is tough on running backs, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Rashee Rice · Under 54.5 rec yds Did not play
Details
DraftKings: Under 54.5 rec yds (-110).
Our number: 51. Small edges add up.
Tre Tucker · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 4
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (-163).
Our number: 3.1. Expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Xavier Worthy · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 4
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (-172).
Our number: 2.7. LV is tough on receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Patrick Mahomes · Under 15.5 rush yds Hit · 0
Details
DraftKings: Under 15.5 rush yds (-109).
Our number: 12. LV gives up a lot to quarterbacks, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: LV by 0.9. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 44 (LV 23, KC 22). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Tre Tucker · 20+ receiving yards Hit · 44
Fair price for our chance: -304. Other rungs: 30+ about 60% (fair -151).
Kenneth Walker III · 70+ rushing yards Hit · 177
Fair price for our chance: -216. Other rungs: 80+ about 66% (fair -195) · 100+ about 62% (fair -160) · 110+ about 60% (fair -151).
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Tucker 20+ + III 70+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: -101.
Pregame leans for LV
Ashton Jeanty · Under 55.5 rush yds Miss · 58
Tre Tucker · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 4
Pregame leans for KC
Rashee Rice · Under 54.5 rec yds Did not play
Xavier Worthy · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 4
Patrick Mahomes · Under 15.5 rush yds Hit · 0