MIA @ MIN
Week 4 · Final: MIA 10, MIN 15
Greg Dulcich · Under 2.5 receptions Did not play
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Malik Willis · 175+ passing yards Miss research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Miss
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Greg Dulcich · Under 2.5 receptions Did not play
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (+129).
Our number: 2.5. MIN is tough on tight ends, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Chris Bell · Under 32.5 rec yds Hit · 0
Details
DraftKings: Under 32.5 rec yds (-114).
Our number: 29. MIN gives up a lot to receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Malik Washington · Over 3.5 receptions Hit · 5
Details
Fanatics: Over 3.5 receptions (-140).
Our number: 3.7. Based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Malik Willis · Under 29.5 rush yds Hit · 11
Details
DraftKings: Under 29.5 rush yds (-111).
Our number: 24. Expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Aaron Jones · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 4
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (+132).
Our number: 1.6. Based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: MIN by 14.2. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 37 (MIN 26, MIA 12). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Malik Willis · 175+ passing yards Miss · 85
Fair price for our chance: -332. Other rungs: 200+ about 60% (fair -150).
Malik Washington · 3+ receptions Hit · 5
Fair price for our chance: -267.
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Willis 175+ + Washington 3+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: -120.
Pregame leans for MIN
Aaron Jones · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 4
Pregame leans for MIA
Greg Dulcich · Under 2.5 receptions Did not play
Chris Bell · Under 32.5 rec yds Hit · 0
Malik Washington · Over 3.5 receptions Hit · 5
Malik Willis · Under 29.5 rush yds Hit · 11