NE @ BUF
Week 4 · Final: NE 29, BUF 26
DJ Moore · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 1
?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Drake Maye · 10+ rushing yards Hit research
?
Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge Miss
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
DJ Moore · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 1
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (+104).
Our number: 3.4. His playing time is going up.
Rhamondre Stevenson · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 3
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (+106).
Our number: 2.4. BUF gives up a lot to running backs, expected game flow helps him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Josh Allen · Under 30.5 rush yds Hit · 4
Details
Fanatics: Under 30.5 rush yds (+100).
Our number: 27. NE is tough on quarterbacks.
Dalton Kincaid · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 1
Details
DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (-125).
Our number: 3.8. NE is tough on tight ends.
DeMario Douglas · Under 26.5 rec yds Hit · 15
Details
DraftKings: Under 26.5 rec yds (-113).
Our number: 21. BUF gives up a lot to receivers, expected game flow helps him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No edge. Our number: BUF by 8.1, close to the line.
We expect about 46 (BUF 27, NE 19). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Drake Maye · 10+ rushing yards Hit · 54
Fair price for our chance: -276.
James Cook · 60+ rushing yards Hit · 75
Fair price for our chance: -267. Other rungs: 70+ about 68% (fair -211) · 90+ about 64% (fair -178) · 110+ about 60% (fair -149).
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Maye 10+ + Cook 60+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: -109.
Pregame leans for BUF
DJ Moore · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 1
Josh Allen · Under 30.5 rush yds Hit · 4
Dalton Kincaid · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 1
Pregame leans for NE
Rhamondre Stevenson · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 3
DeMario Douglas · Under 26.5 rec yds Hit · 15