TEN @ BAL
Week 4 · Final: TEN 18, BAL 24
Lamar Jackson · Under 30.5 rush yds Hit · 20
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Zay Flowers · 50+ receiving yards Hit research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Hit
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Lamar Jackson · Under 30.5 rush yds Hit · 20
Details
DraftKings: Under 30.5 rush yds (-108).
Our number: 30. TEN is tough on quarterbacks, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Mark Andrews · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 5
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (+122).
Our number: 3.2. TEN is tough on tight ends, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going down.
Carnell Tate · Under 4.5 receptions Miss · 9
Details
DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (-138).
Our number: 4.3. BAL gives up a lot to receivers.
Gunnar Helm · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 1
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (+105).
Our number: 2.3. BAL is tough on tight ends.
Wan'Dale Robinson · Under 37.5 rec yds Hit · 19
Details
DraftKings: Under 37.5 rec yds (-109).
Our number: 31. BAL gives up a lot to receivers.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: BAL by 8.4. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 46 (BAL 27, TEN 19). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Zay Flowers · 50+ receiving yards Hit · 118
Fair price for our chance: -268. Other rungs: 30+ about 79% (fair -376) · 40+ about 74% (fair -291) · 60+ about 63% (fair -172).
Pregame leans for BAL
Lamar Jackson · Under 30.5 rush yds Hit · 20
Mark Andrews · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 5
Pregame leans for TEN
Carnell Tate · Under 4.5 receptions Miss · 9
Gunnar Helm · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 1
Wan'Dale Robinson · Under 37.5 rec yds Hit · 19