BUF @ LA
Week 5 · Final: BUF 37, LA 34
Davante Adams · Under 64.5 rec yds Hit · 51
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Kyren Williams · 2+ receptions Hit research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge Miss
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Davante Adams · Under 64.5 rec yds Hit · 51
Details
DraftKings: Under 64.5 rec yds (-114).
Our number: 60. BUF gives up a lot to receivers, expected game flow helps him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
James Cook · Under 1.5 receptions Hit · 1
Details
DraftKings: Under 1.5 receptions (+111).
Our number: 1.3. His playing time is going down.
Ty Johnson · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 4
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (-171).
Our number: 2.3. Includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Keon Coleman · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 1
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (-158).
Our number: 3.1. LA is tough on receivers, his playing time is going up.
Puka Nacua · Over 90.5 rec yds Hit · 138
Details
Fanatics: Over 90.5 rec yds (-135).
Our number: 108. BUF gives up a lot to receivers, expected game flow helps him, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No edge. Our number: LA by 0.7, close to the line.
We expect about 51 (LA 26, BUF 25). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Kyren Williams · 2+ receptions Hit · 6
Fair price for our chance: -279. Other rungs: 3+ about 62% (fair -163) · 4+ about 60% (fair -151).
Puka Nacua · 60+ receiving yards Hit · 138
Fair price for our chance: -269. Other rungs: 50+ about 74% (fair -280) · 70+ about 64% (fair -179).
Matthew Stafford · 200+ passing yards Hit · 383
Fair price for our chance: -267. Other rungs: 225+ about 67% (fair -207) · 275+ about 62% (fair -160) · 300+ about 58% (fair -139).
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Williams 2+ + Nacua 60+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: -110.
3-leg parlay · Williams 2+ + Nacua 60+ + Stafford 200+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: +156.
Pregame leans for LA
Davante Adams · Under 64.5 rec yds Hit · 51
Puka Nacua · Over 90.5 rec yds Hit · 138
Pregame leans for BUF
James Cook · Under 1.5 receptions Hit · 1
Ty Johnson · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 4
Keon Coleman · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 1