DEN @ LAC
Week 5 · Final: DEN 23, LAC 17
J.K. Dobbins · Under 51.5 rush yds Miss · 68
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Justin Herbert · 175+ passing yards Miss research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Miss
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
J.K. Dobbins · Under 51.5 rush yds Miss · 68
Details
DraftKings: Under 51.5 rush yds (-113).
Our number: 45. LAC gives up a lot to running backs, expected game flow helps him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going down.
RJ Harvey · Under 21.5 rush yds Hit · 7
Details
DraftKings: Under 21.5 rush yds (-110).
Our number: 17. LAC gives up a lot to running backs, expected game flow helps him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Jaylen Waddle · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 2
Details
DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (-120).
Our number: 3.3. LAC is tough on receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Courtland Sutton · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 2
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (-137).
Our number: 1.9. LAC is tough on receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Evan Engram · Under 16.5 rec yds Miss · 55
Details
DraftKings: Under 16.5 rec yds (-108).
Our number: 9. LAC is tough on tight ends, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: DEN by 0.5. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 40 (LAC 20, DEN 20). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Justin Herbert · 175+ passing yards Miss · 121
Fair price for our chance: -307.
RJ Harvey · 4+ receptions Miss · 0
Fair price for our chance: -255. Other rungs: 5+ about 66% (fair -195).
Bo Nix · 150+ passing yards Miss · 123
Fair price for our chance: -248. Other rungs: 175+ about 65% (fair -184).
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Herbert 175+ + Harvey 4+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: -112.
3-leg parlay · Herbert 175+ + Harvey 4+ + Nix 150+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: +159.
Pregame leans for DEN
J.K. Dobbins · Under 51.5 rush yds Miss · 68
RJ Harvey · Under 21.5 rush yds Hit · 7
Jaylen Waddle · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 2
Courtland Sutton · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 2
Evan Engram · Under 16.5 rec yds Miss · 55