HOU @ TEN
Week 5 · Final: HOU 26, TEN 3
Tony Pollard · Under 49.5 rush yds Miss · 52
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Nico Collins · 50+ receiving yards Hit research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Miss
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Tony Pollard · Under 49.5 rush yds Miss · 52
Details
DraftKings: Under 49.5 rush yds (-110).
Our number: 48. HOU is tough on running backs, expected game flow works against him.
Woody Marks · Under 29.5 rush yds Miss · 62
Details
DraftKings: Under 29.5 rush yds (-117).
Our number: 28. Expected game flow helps him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Nico Collins · Under 81.5 rec yds Hit · 56
Details
DraftKings: Under 81.5 rec yds (-113).
Our number: 76. TEN gives up a lot to receivers, includes his games from last season (he’s played fewer than 3 this year), based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Kayshon Boutte · Under 26.5 rec yds Miss · 38
Details
DraftKings: Under 26.5 rec yds (-115).
Our number: 25. TEN gives up a lot to receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Cam Ward · Under 10.5 rush yds Hit · 2
Details
DraftKings: Under 10.5 rush yds (-112).
Our number: 10. HOU is tough on quarterbacks, expected game flow works against him.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: TEN by 1.1. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 42 (TEN 22, HOU 21). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Nico Collins · 50+ receiving yards Hit · 56
Fair price for our chance: -295. Other rungs: 60+ about 65% (fair -182).
Wan'Dale Robinson · 2+ receptions Hit · 6
Fair price for our chance: -268. Other rungs: 3+ about 66% (fair -195).
C.J. Stroud · 200+ passing yards Hit · 261
Fair price for our chance: -267. Other rungs: 175+ about 73% (fair -270) · 225+ about 66% (fair -195) · 250+ about 63% (fair -172).
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Collins 50+ + Robinson 2+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: -113.
3-leg parlay · Collins 50+ + Robinson 2+ + Stroud 200+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: +153.
Pregame leans for TEN
Tony Pollard · Under 49.5 rush yds Miss · 52
Cam Ward · Under 10.5 rush yds Hit · 2
Pregame leans for HOU
Woody Marks · Under 29.5 rush yds Miss · 62
Nico Collins · Under 81.5 rec yds Hit · 56
Kayshon Boutte · Under 26.5 rec yds Miss · 38