IND @ PIT
Week 5 · Final: IND 22, PIT 34
Keenan Allen · Under 27.5 rec yds Miss · 45
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Jaylen Warren · 2+ receptions Hit research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Keenan Allen · Under 27.5 rec yds Miss · 45
Details
DraftKings: Under 27.5 rec yds (-112).
Our number: 27. Expected game flow works against him, his playing time is going up.
Jonathan Taylor · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 3
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (-109).
Our number: 2.3. PIT gives up a lot to running backs, expected game flow works against him, his playing time is going down.
Pat Freiermuth · Over 25.5 rec yds Hit · 44
Details
Fanatics: Over 25.5 rec yds (-135).
Our number: 27. Based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Josh Downs · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 3
Details
DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (+122).
Our number: 3.7. Expected game flow works against him.
Tyler Warren · Under 5.5 receptions Miss · 7
Details
Fanatics: Under 5.5 receptions (-150).
Our number: 4.8. PIT is tough on tight ends, expected game flow works against him.
Game call
No edge. Our number: PIT by 1.3, close to the line.
We expect about 44 (PIT 22, IND 21). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Jaylen Warren · 2+ receptions Hit · 6
Fair price for our chance: -281.
DK Metcalf · 3+ receptions Hit · 3
Fair price for our chance: -274.
Pat Freiermuth · 2+ receptions Hit · 5
Fair price for our chance: -274.
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Warren 2+ + Metcalf 3+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: -112.
3-leg parlay · Warren 2+ + Metcalf 3+ + Freiermuth 2+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: +153.
Pregame leans for PIT
Pat Freiermuth · Over 25.5 rec yds Hit · 44
Pregame leans for IND
Keenan Allen · Under 27.5 rec yds Miss · 45
Jonathan Taylor · Under 2.5 receptions Miss · 3
Josh Downs · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 3
Tyler Warren · Under 5.5 receptions Miss · 7