MIN @ NO
Week 5 · Final: MIN 23, NO 13
Juwan Johnson · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 4
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Devaughn Vele · 3+ receptions Hit research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Hit
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Juwan Johnson · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 4
Details
DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (-131).
Our number: 4.5. MIN is tough on tight ends, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Kyler Murray · Under 15.5 rush yds Miss · 51
Details
Fanatics: Under 15.5 rush yds (+105).
Our number: 10. NO is tough on quarterbacks, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Aaron Jones · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 3
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (-168).
Our number: 1.9. Based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Travis Etienne · Under 42.5 rush yds Did not play
Details
Graded against an estimated line of 42.5, not a sportsbook line.
Our number: 42. MIN is tough on running backs, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going down.
Alvin Kamara · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 2
Details
Graded against an estimated line of 3.5, not a sportsbook line.
Our number: 3.3. MIN is tough on running backs, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: MIN by 6.8. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 43 (NO 18, MIN 25). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Devaughn Vele · 3+ receptions Hit · 4
Fair price for our chance: -279. Other rungs: 4+ about 66% (fair -195).
Aaron Jones · 50+ rushing yards Hit · 113
Fair price for our chance: -267. Other rungs: 60+ about 67% (fair -201).
Juwan Johnson · 3+ receptions Hit · 4
Fair price for our chance: -267.
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Vele 3+ + Jones 50+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: -109.
3-leg parlay · Vele 3+ + Jones 50+ + Johnson 3+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: +157.
Pregame leans for NO
Juwan Johnson · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 4
Travis Etienne · Under 42.5 rush yds Did not play
Alvin Kamara · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 2
Pregame leans for MIN
Kyler Murray · Under 15.5 rush yds Miss · 51
Aaron Jones · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 3