BUF @ LV
Week 6 · Final: BUF 33, LV 30
Khalil Shakir · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 4
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.James Cook · 70+ rushing yards Hit research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Hit
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Khalil Shakir · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 4
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (+100).
Our number: 3.1. LV is tough on receivers.
Keon Coleman · Over 2.5 receptions Hit · 4
Details
DraftKings: Over 2.5 receptions (-131).
Our number: 2.6. LV is tough on receivers, his playing time is going up.
Ashton Jeanty · Under 54.5 rush yds Hit · 22
Details
DraftKings: Under 54.5 rush yds (-110).
Our number: 45. Expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going down.
DJ Moore · Under 48.5 rec yds Did not play
Details
DraftKings: Under 48.5 rec yds (-113).
Our number: 37. LV gives up a lot to receivers, his playing time is going down.
James Cook · Under 1.5 receptions Miss · 3
Details
Fanatics: Under 1.5 receptions (-165).
Our number: 1.2. LV is tough on running backs.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: BUF by 0.1. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 58 (LV 29, BUF 29). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
FanDuel has Buffalo Bills at 29.5; we expect about 29. No lean shown.
FanDuel has Las Vegas Raiders at 23.5; we expect about 29. No lean shown. Hit
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
James Cook · 70+ rushing yards Hit · 95
Fair price for our chance: -293. Other rungs: 80+ about 65% (fair -184) · 91+ about 62% (fair -160) · 100+ about 60% (fair -149).
Kirk Cousins · 225+ passing yards Hit · 313
Fair price for our chance: -267. Other rungs: 175+ about 75% (fair -302) · 200+ about 73% (fair -273) · 250+ about 66% (fair -195).
Josh Allen · 10+ rushing yards Miss · 1
Fair price for our chance: -267.
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Cook 70+ + Cousins 225+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: -112.
3-leg parlay · Cook 70+ + Cousins 225+ + Allen 10+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: +154.
Pregame leans for LV
Ashton Jeanty · Under 54.5 rush yds Hit · 22
Pregame leans for BUF
Khalil Shakir · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 4
Keon Coleman · Over 2.5 receptions Hit · 4
DJ Moore · Under 48.5 rec yds Did not play
James Cook · Under 1.5 receptions Miss · 3