DAL @ GB
Week 6 · Final: DAL 13, GB 23
Ryan Flournoy · Under 32.5 rec yds Miss · 40
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Christian Watson · 40+ receiving yards Hit research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Ryan Flournoy · Under 32.5 rec yds Miss · 40
Details
DraftKings: Under 32.5 rec yds (-112).
Our number: 32. GB is tough on receivers.
George Pickens · Under 5.5 receptions Miss · 6
Details
DraftKings: Under 5.5 receptions (-152).
Our number: 5.4. Small edges add up.
CeeDee Lamb · Under 83.5 rec yds Hit · 70
Details
DraftKings: Under 83.5 rec yds (-113).
Our number: 77. GB is tough on receivers, his playing time is going down.
Tucker Kraft · Under 4.5 receptions Miss · 5
Details
DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (-141).
Our number: 4.1. Expected game flow helps him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Matthew Golden · Under 5.5 receptions Miss · 6
Details
Fanatics: Under 5.5 receptions (-195).
Our number: 5.1. Expected game flow helps him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going down.
Game call
No edge. Our number: GB by 1.3, close to the line.
We expect about 52 (GB 27, DAL 25). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
FanDuel has Dallas Cowboys at 26.5; we expect about 25. No lean shown.
FanDuel has Green Bay Packers at 26.5; we expect about 27. No lean shown.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Christian Watson · 40+ receiving yards Hit · 64
Fair price for our chance: -327. Other rungs: 50+ about 66% (fair -195) · 70+ about 63% (fair -168) · 80+ about 60% (fair -151).
Tucker Kraft · 20+ receiving yards Hit · 37
Fair price for our chance: -315. Other rungs: 30+ about 64% (fair -177) · 40+ about 59% (fair -142).
Jordan Love · 200+ passing yards Hit · 276
Fair price for our chance: -299. Other rungs: 225+ about 66% (fair -191) · 250+ about 63% (fair -172) · 275+ about 60% (fair -151).
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Watson 40+ + Kraft 20+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: -131.
3-leg parlay · Watson 40+ + Kraft 20+ + Love 200+ Hit
Fair price for our chance: +130.
Pregame leans for GB
Tucker Kraft · Under 4.5 receptions Miss · 5
Matthew Golden · Under 5.5 receptions Miss · 6
Pregame leans for DAL
Ryan Flournoy · Under 32.5 rec yds Miss · 40
George Pickens · Under 5.5 receptions Miss · 6
CeeDee Lamb · Under 83.5 rec yds Hit · 70