HOU @ JAX
Week 6 · Final: HOU 34, JAX 31
Brenton Strange · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 5
?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Nico Collins · 5+ receptions Miss research
?
Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Miss
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Brenton Strange · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 5
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (+111).
Our number: 3.4. HOU is tough on tight ends.
Parker Washington · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 4
Details
DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (-110).
Our number: 4.4. HOU gives up a lot to receivers.
Bhayshul Tuten · Over 60.5 rush yds Miss · 39
Details
Fanatics: Over 60.5 rush yds (-135).
Our number: 63. HOU is tough on running backs, his playing time is going up.
Woody Marks · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 2
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (+103).
Our number: 2.1. JAX gives up a lot to running backs, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Kayshon Boutte · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 2
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (-185).
Our number: 2.3. JAX gives up a lot to receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: JAX by 7.6. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 43 (JAX 25, HOU 18). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
FanDuel has Houston Texans at 20.5; we expect about 18. No lean shown. Miss
FanDuel has Jacksonville Jaguars at 21.5; we expect about 25. No lean shown. Hit
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Nico Collins · 5+ receptions Miss · 3
Fair price for our chance: -271. Other rungs: 6+ about 65% (fair -185).
Parker Washington · 3+ receptions Hit · 4
Fair price for our chance: -268. Other rungs: 4+ about 60% (fair -151).
Jakobi Meyers · 2+ receptions Hit · 5
Fair price for our chance: -267.
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Collins 5+ + Washington 3+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: -108.
3-leg parlay · Collins 5+ + Washington 3+ + Meyers 2+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: +159.
Pregame leans for JAX
Brenton Strange · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 5
Parker Washington · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 4
Bhayshul Tuten · Over 60.5 rush yds Miss · 39
Pregame leans for HOU
Woody Marks · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 2
Kayshon Boutte · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 2