LAC @ KC
Week 6 · Final: LAC 6, KC 22
Ladd McConkey · Under 41.5 rec yds Hit · 17
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Omarion Hampton · 30+ rushing yards Miss research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Hit
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Ladd McConkey · Under 41.5 rec yds Hit · 17
Details
DraftKings: Under 41.5 rec yds (-113).
Our number: 35. KC is tough on receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going down.
Keaton Mitchell · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 0
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (-144).
Our number: 2. Expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Justin Herbert · Under 24.5 rush yds Miss · 26
Details
DraftKings: Under 24.5 rush yds (-114).
Our number: 20. Expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Quentin Johnston · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 1
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (+104).
Our number: 1.4. KC is tough on receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Travis Kelce · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 4
Details
Lucky win: 1 catch wiped out by penalties.
DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (-106).
Our number: 2.8. LAC is tough on tight ends, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: KC by 12.5. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 43 (KC 28, LAC 15). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
FanDuel has Los Angeles Chargers at 16.5; we expect about 15. No lean shown.
FanDuel has Kansas City Chiefs at 24.5; we expect about 28. No lean shown. Miss
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Omarion Hampton · 30+ rushing yards Miss · 18
Fair price for our chance: -267.
Kenneth Walker III · 120+ rushing yards Hit · 128
Fair price for our chance: -216. Other rungs: 80+ about 75% (fair -300) · 91+ about 74% (fair -280) · 110+ about 73% (fair -266).
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Hampton 30+ + III 120+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: +106.
Pregame leans for KC
Travis Kelce · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 4
Pregame leans for LAC
Ladd McConkey · Under 41.5 rec yds Hit · 17
Keaton Mitchell · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 0
Justin Herbert · Under 24.5 rush yds Miss · 26
Quentin Johnston · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 1