PIT @ TB
Week 6 · Final: PIT 26, TB 19
DK Metcalf · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 11
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Emeka Egbuka · 2+ receptions Hit research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Miss
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
DK Metcalf · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 11
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (+123).
Our number: 3.2. Expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Jaylen Warren · Under 60.5 rush yds Hit · 50
Details
DraftKings: Under 60.5 rush yds (-112).
Our number: 57. TB is tough on running backs, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Pat Freiermuth · Under 36.5 rec yds Hit · 11
Details
DraftKings: Under 36.5 rec yds (-114).
Our number: 34. TB gives up a lot to tight ends, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Emeka Egbuka · Over 3.5 receptions Hit · 7
Details
DraftKings: Over 3.5 receptions (-138).
Our number: 3.5. Expected game flow works against him.
Chris Godwin Jr. · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 4
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (-155).
Our number: 3.2. Expected game flow works against him.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: TB by 0.5. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 41 (TB 21, PIT 20). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
FanDuel has Pittsburgh Steelers at 20.5; we expect about 20. No lean shown.
FanDuel has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 18.5; we expect about 21. No lean shown.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Emeka Egbuka · 2+ receptions Hit · 7
Fair price for our chance: -336. Other rungs: 3+ about 63% (fair -169).
Pat Freiermuth · 20+ receiving yards Miss · 11
Fair price for our chance: -317. Other rungs: 30+ about 60% (fair -151).
Roman Wilson · 2+ receptions Did not play
Fair price for our chance: -267.
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Egbuka 2+ + Freiermuth 20+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: -133.
Pregame leans for TB
Emeka Egbuka · Over 3.5 receptions Hit · 7
Chris Godwin Jr. · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 4
Pregame leans for PIT
DK Metcalf · Under 3.5 receptions Miss · 11
Jaylen Warren · Under 60.5 rush yds Hit · 50
Pat Freiermuth · Under 36.5 rec yds Hit · 11