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CLE @ TEN

Week 7 · Final: CLE 27, TEN 24

Best bet

Tony Pollard · Under 65.5 rush yds Miss · 129

Safest bet
?A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.

Denzel Boston · 30+ receiving yards Miss research

Game call
?Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.

No edge

Pregame leans
?The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.

Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.

1

Tony Pollard · Under 65.5 rush yds Miss · 129

Details

Fanatics: Under 65.5 rush yds (-110).

Our number: 62. CLE gives up a lot to running backs, his playing time is going up.

2

Quinshon Judkins · Under 46.5 rush yds Miss · 96

Details

DraftKings: Under 46.5 rush yds (-111).

Our number: 43. TEN gives up a lot to running backs, his playing time is going down.

3

Carnell Tate · Under 4.5 receptions Miss · 5

Details

DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (-122).

Our number: 4. His playing time is going down.

4

Harold Fannin Jr. · Under 29.5 rec yds Miss · 91

Details

DraftKings: Under 29.5 rec yds (-116).

Our number: 25. TEN is tough on tight ends.

5

Denzel Boston · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 3

Details

DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (-146).

Our number: 3. TEN gives up a lot to receivers.

Tyjae Spears · Under 3.5 receptions Void

Void: player inactive. Did not play. This pick doesn’t count as a win or a loss.

Raheim Sanders · Under 2.5 receptions Void

Void: player inactive. on injured reserve. This pick doesn’t count as a win or a loss.

Game call

Spread

No edge. Our number: CLE by 1.8, close to the line.

Total points

We expect about 36 (TEN 17, CLE 19). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.

19.0CLE score a game
22.3TEN allow a game
15.4TEN score a game
20.9CLE allow a game

More options

Safer bets (alt lines) · research
?A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.

Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.

Denzel Boston · 30+ receiving yards Miss · 27

Fair price for our chance: -285. Other rungs: 20+ about 81% (fair -424) · 40+ about 64% (fair -178).

Tony Pollard · 50+ rushing yards Hit · 129

Fair price for our chance: -267. Other rungs: 40+ about 75% (fair -307).

Quinshon Judkins · 30+ rushing yards Hit · 96

Fair price for our chance: -267.

Small parlays · research

2-leg parlay · Boston 30+ + Pollard 50+ Miss

Fair price for our chance: -111.

3-leg parlay · Boston 30+ + Pollard 50+ + Judkins 30+ Miss

Fair price for our chance: +156.

Pregame leans for TEN

1

Tony Pollard · Under 65.5 rush yds Miss · 129

2

Carnell Tate · Under 4.5 receptions Miss · 5

Pregame leans for CLE

1

Quinshon Judkins · Under 46.5 rush yds Miss · 96

2

Harold Fannin Jr. · Under 29.5 rec yds Miss · 91

3

Denzel Boston · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 3