KC @ SEA
Week 7 · Final: KC 3, SEA 20
Emanuel Wilson · Under 52.5 rush yds Miss · 100
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Travis Kelce · 20+ receiving yards Hit research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown Miss
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Emanuel Wilson · Under 52.5 rush yds Miss · 100
Details
DraftKings: Under 52.5 rush yds (-111).
Our number: 50. KC is tough on running backs, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going down.
Cooper Kupp · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 2
Details
DraftKings: Under 2.5 receptions (-121).
Our number: 2.3. KC is tough on receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Under 93.5 rec yds Miss · 150
Details
DraftKings: Under 93.5 rec yds (-110).
Our number: 86. KC is tough on receivers, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Xavier Worthy · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 3
Details
DraftKings: Under 4.5 receptions (-112).
Our number: 3.9. SEA is tough on receivers, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Travis Kelce · Under 46.5 rec yds Hit · 44
Details
DraftKings: Under 46.5 rec yds (-111).
Our number: 41. SEA is tough on tight ends, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going down.
Game call
No lean shown. Our number: KC by 3.5. Spread leans are not shown yet: they appear once this season’s record holds above 52.4% after 100 graded games (now 22-20 (52%) of 100).
We expect about 43 (SEA 20, KC 23). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Travis Kelce · 20+ receiving yards Hit · 44
Fair price for our chance: -267. Other rungs: 30+ about 66% (fair -195) · 40+ about 62% (fair -164).
Patrick Mahomes · 175+ passing yards Miss · 165
Fair price for our chance: -267. Other rungs: 200+ about 60% (fair -151).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba · 70+ receiving yards Hit · 150
Fair price for our chance: -267. Other rungs: 60+ about 74% (fair -283) · 80+ about 60% (fair -151).
Small parlays · research
2-leg parlay · Kelce 20+ + Mahomes 175+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: -107.
3-leg parlay · Kelce 20+ + Mahomes 175+ + Smith-Njigba 70+ Miss
Fair price for our chance: +160.
Pregame leans for SEA
Emanuel Wilson · Under 52.5 rush yds Miss · 100
Cooper Kupp · Under 2.5 receptions Hit · 2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Under 93.5 rec yds Miss · 150
Pregame leans for KC
Xavier Worthy · Under 4.5 receptions Hit · 3
Travis Kelce · Under 46.5 rec yds Hit · 44