PIT @ NO
Week 7 · Final: PIT 16, NO 10
Pat Freiermuth · Under 32.5 rec yds Hit · 20
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Juwan Johnson · 2+ receptions Miss research
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge Miss
Pregame leans ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.Beta Our pregame picks are still being tested against real prices. Our main tools are the stats and live picks.
Pat Freiermuth · Under 32.5 rec yds Hit · 20
Details
DraftKings: Under 32.5 rec yds (-113).
Our number: 31. NO gives up a lot to tight ends, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Juwan Johnson · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 1
Details
DraftKings: Under 3.5 receptions (-104).
Our number: 3.1. PIT is tough on tight ends, expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going down.
Rico Dowdle · Under 30.5 rush yds Miss · 41
Details
Fanatics: Under 30.5 rush yds (-120).
Our number: 27. NO gives up a lot to running backs, his playing time is going down.
Germie Bernard · Under 55.5 rec yds Hit · 27
Details
DraftKings: Under 55.5 rec yds (-113).
Our number: 49. Based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week, his playing time is going up.
Devaughn Vele · Under 40.5 rec yds Miss · 54
Details
Fanatics: Under 40.5 rec yds (+100).
Our number: 35. Expected game flow works against him, based mostly on games with the same key teammates playing as this week.
Roman Wilson · Under 44.5 rec yds Void
Void: player inactive. missed last week (Finger); hidden until his team's report clears him. This pick doesn’t count as a win or a loss.
Game call
No edge. Our number: PIT by 2.3, close to the line.
We expect about 47 (NO 22, PIT 25). No total lean is shown: total leans have tested below break-even.
More options
Safer bets (alt lines) · research ?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Research, not picks: graded in the background. The book’s implied chance at its price is shown next to ours; where the book has no price, it says so.
Juwan Johnson · 2+ receptions Miss · 1
Fair price for our chance: -267. Other rungs: 3+ about 60% (fair -151).
Roman Wilson · 2+ receptions Did not play
Fair price for our chance: -267.
Aaron Rodgers · 200+ passing yards Hit · 212
Fair price for our chance: -262. Other rungs: 225+ about 66% (fair -192) · 231+ about 59% (fair -146).
Pregame leans for NO
Juwan Johnson · Under 3.5 receptions Hit · 1
Devaughn Vele · Under 40.5 rec yds Miss · 54
Pregame leans for PIT
Pat Freiermuth · Under 32.5 rec yds Hit · 20
Rico Dowdle · Under 30.5 rush yds Miss · 41
Germie Bernard · Under 55.5 rec yds Hit · 27