CLE @ ATL
Final: CLE 111, ATL 114
Aaron Wiggins · Under 2.5 threes · bet if line ≥ 1.5
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.Evan Mobley · 26+ points + rebounds + assists Miss
We don’t call NBA spreads or totals yet: there is no tested record to stand behind.
Pregame leans Beta ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.New for this season.
Aaron Wiggins · Under 2.5 threes Miss · 4
Regular teammates are out: more for him
The reasons
Fanatics: Under 2.5 threes (-190).
Our number: 1 in about 27 minutes. We put the under at about 69% (0.3 our model, 0.7 the book); the book’s own no-vig chance is 60%.
Evan Mobley · Under 1.5 threes Hit · 0
Regular teammates are out: more for him
The reasons
DraftKings: Under 1.5 threes (-211).
Our number: 0.5 in about 32 minutes. We put the under at about 71% (0.3 our model, 0.7 the book); the book’s own no-vig chance is 64%.
Early season: this leans on last season’s numbers, so trust it less.
Jarrett Allen · Over 12.5 points Hit · 14
Regular teammates are out: more for him
The reasons
DraftKings: Over 12.5 points (-126).
Our number: 16 in about 26 minutes. We put the over at about 57% (0.3 our model, 0.7 the book); the book’s own no-vig chance is 53%.
Early season: this leans on last season’s numbers, so trust it less.