MEM @ POR
Final: MEM 124, POR 103
Jerami Grant · Over 10.5 points · bet if line ≤ 14.5
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.For members.
We don’t call NBA spreads or totals yet: there is no tested record to stand behind.
Pregame leans Beta ?
The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.
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The worst number still worth taking. If your sportsbook’s line is past it, skip the bet. How far our number is from the line. Strong is the biggest gap, Light the smallest.New for this season.
Jerami Grant · Over 10.5 points Miss · 2
Regular teammates are out: more for him
The reasons
Fanatics: Over 10.5 points (+100).
Our number: 15.1 in about 26 minutes. We put the over at about 56% (0.3 our model, 0.7 the book); the book’s own no-vig chance is 47%.
Early season: this leans on last season’s numbers, so trust it less.
Jrue Holiday · Over 19.5 pts+reb+ast Miss · 16
Regular teammates are out: more for him
The reasons
DraftKings: Over 19.5 pts+reb+ast (-128).
Our number: 25.4 in about 30 minutes. We put the over at about 59% (0.3 our model, 0.7 the book); the book’s own no-vig chance is 53%.
Early season: this leans on last season’s numbers, so trust it less.
Zach Edey · Over 8.5 points Hit · 13
Regular teammates are out: more for him
The reasons
DraftKings: Over 8.5 points (+105).
Our number: 11.5 in about 24 minutes. We put the over at about 53% (0.3 our model, 0.7 the book); the book’s own no-vig chance is 46%.
Early season: this leans on last season’s numbers, so trust it less.