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ARI @ DAL

Week 8 · · DAL -7 · total 54.5

Offense vs defense rankings

DAL offense vs ARI defense

Per gameDAL offenseARI defense allows
Points27.0#529.7#32
Total yards358.7#13370.0#24
Passing yards264.4#8243.7#21
Rushing yards94.3#25126.3#23
Yards per play5.58#116.12#31
Third downs converted49%#340%#14
Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown71%#571%#24
Sacks (taken / made)1.0#12.1#19
Turnovers (given / taken)0.9#111.0#17

#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.

ARI offense vs DAL defense

Per gameARI offenseDAL defense allows
Points20.3#2625.7#23
Total yards325.6#23380.9#28
Passing yards229.6#21235.1#15
Rushing yards96.0#23145.7#32
Yards per play4.64#296.06#29
Third downs converted38%#2554%#32
Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown44%#3271%#25
Sacks (taken / made)2.1#141.4#27
Turnovers (given / taken)0.9#110.6#30

#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.

Player Stats

Dallas Cowboys players

Per game this season. The second column is where ARI rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.

Playervs ARI defenseReceiving yardsReceptionsRushing yardsPassing yardsTargetsOn field
Dak Prescott QB#2111.6264.4100%
Javonte Williams RB#2314.72.767.43.169%
Hunter Luepke RB#231.80.72.70.719%
Tyler Goodson RB#231.00.518.01.318%
CeeDee Lamb WR ▲#2293.07.611.685%
Ryan Flournoy WR ▲#2243.43.95.783%
George Pickens WRQ#2269.35.38.374%
Jonathan Mingo WR#226.00.61.627%
Jake Ferguson TE ▼#2216.42.43.655%
Brevyn Spann-Ford TE ▲#2211.31.31.950%

Arizona Cardinals players

Per game this season. The second column is where DAL rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.

Playervs DAL defenseReceiving yardsReceptionsRushing yardsPassing yardsTargetsOn field
Jacoby Brissett QB#151.00.111.4228.60.1100%
Tyler Allgeier RB ▲Q#2712.02.325.12.452%
Bam Knight RB ▲#278.31.340.01.849%
Jeremiyah Love RBQ#277.22.249.02.847%
Michael Wilson WRQ#2453.65.31.69.491%
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR#2421.31.33.371%
Jalen Brooks WR ▲IR#2413.50.82.859%
Kendrick Bourne WR#2439.04.26.057%
Trey McBride TE#1467.48.411.195%
Elijah Higgins TE#1423.52.32.346%
Hunter Long TEIR#143.80.50.532%

Passing touchdowns Beta

How many TD passes each starter throws, from his rate, his team’s expected points, red-zone share and the defense. Research, not a lean: the model is being graded in the background first (3-7 on priced lines so far).

QuarterbackExpected1+2+3+Book line
Dak Prescott DAL vs ARI2.188%63%36%O/U 2.5 (+113 / -144) · our Over chance 36% · book's no-vig 44%
Jacoby Brissett ARI vs DAL1.578%45%19%O/U 1.5 (-180 / +135) · our Over chance 45% · book's no-vig 60%

Cheat sheet

Every game this season

The highest number each player has reached in every game he has played this season. Softest defenses first; injured players left off.

  1. T. McBride ARI @ DAL: 7+ Receptions7/7 this season

Pro members also see this week’s sportsbook price for each line, and the chance it needs. Get Pro

Research, not picks. In 2025, lines like these were reached again the next game 83% of the time: 84% against the 10 softest defenses, 80% against the 10 toughest. Sportsbooks usually price them at about that chance or higher, so a streak alone isn’t an edge.

Hit in 80%+ of his games

Numbers a book sells at -200 or better that he has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season. Best hit rates first.

  1. J. Williams DAL vs ARI: 2+ Receptions6/7 this season
  2. J. Ferguson DAL vs ARI: 2+ Receptions6/7 this season

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Research, not picks. The price column says what the book thinks of the hit rate.

ARI @ DAL chalk combo Beta

Lines priced around -250 to -500 that each player has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season, put together within one game so the combo pays between roughly -130 and +200; the bands are guidance, so a leg or a combo a little outside them still makes the cut when the numbers are good. Our chance is the legs multiplied; each price is that leg’s best book, and a same-game parlay at one book will price a touch differently.

2 legs · about +101our chance 69%

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Research, not a promise: a combo loses when any leg misses, and legs from one game can miss together. 21+ · Gamble responsibly.

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Where and weather

AT&T Stadium. 80°F, wind 5 mph, 0% chance of rain.

What stands out

  • Soft spot: DAL allow 106.6 rushing yards a game to running backs, 6th most. Jeremiyah Love averages 49.0.
  • Bigger role lately for ARI: Jalen Brooks. Sportsbook numbers can lag behind a role change.
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Worked out automatically from this week’s numbers. Notes to help you think, not picks.

Our picks for this game

Best bet

For members. Unlock with Pro $19

Safest bet
?A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.

For members.

Game call
?Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.

No edge

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