LV @ NYJ
Week 8 · · NYJ -1.5 · total 45.5
Offense vs defense rankings
NYJ offense vs LV defense
| Per game | NYJ offense | LV defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.6#27 | 28.1#29 |
| Total yards | 328.3#22 | 388.7#29 |
| Passing yards | 231.9#20 | 245.1#22 |
| Rushing yards | 96.4#22 | 143.6#31 |
| Yards per play | 5.30#19 | 6.10#30 |
| Third downs converted | 38%#24 | 44%#24 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 50%#28 | 79%#28 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 3.0#25 | 2.3#16 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 0.7#7 | 1.7#2 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
LV offense vs NYJ defense
| Per game | LV offense | NYJ defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.1#6 | 21.4#13 |
| Total yards | 351.6#15 | 330.6#10 |
| Passing yards | 276.9#5 | 202.9#5 |
| Rushing yards | 74.7#31 | 127.7#24 |
| Yards per play | 5.45#16 | 5.02#6 |
| Third downs converted | 40%#14 | 39%#12 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 52%#27 | 58%#12 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 1.4#5 | 2.7#8 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 0.9#11 | 1.0#17 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
Player Stats
New York Jets players
Per game this season. The second column is where LV rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs LV defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith QB | #22 | 6.0 | 231.9 | 100% | |||
| Braelon Allen RB ▲ | #32 | 10.7 | 2.1 | 59.7 | 2.9 | 83% | |
| Breece Hall RBQ | #32 | 34.0 | 3.3 | 54.3 | 3.3 | 57% | |
| Isaiah Davis RB ▲ | #32 | 11.3 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 18% | |
| Garrett Wilson WR ▼ | #18 | 63.4 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 92% | ||
| Omar Cooper Jr. WR ▲ | #18 | 82.7 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 73% | ||
| Tim Patrick WR ▼ | #18 | 20.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 69% | ||
| Sterling Shepard WR | #18 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 49% | ||
| Adonai Mitchell WR ▼ | #18 | 41.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 44% | ||
| Isaiah Williams WR ▼ | #18 | 21.6 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 19% | |
| Mason Taylor TE | #21 | 29.3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 59% | ||
| Jeremy Ruckert TE | #21 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 39% | ||
| Kenyon Sadiq TE | #21 | 23.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 36% | |
| Jelani Woods TE ▼ | #21 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 23% |
Las Vegas Raiders players
Per game this season. The second column is where NYJ rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs NYJ defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins QB | #5 | 0.6 | 268.1 | 100% | |||
| Ashton Jeanty RB ▼ | #27 | 44.6 | 4.9 | 46.9 | 6.3 | 65% | |
| Mike Washington Jr. RB ▲ | #27 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 27.9 | 0.9 | 31% | |
| Tre Tucker WR ▲ | #9 | 67.7 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 76% | ||
| Jalen Nailor WR ▲ | #9 | 15.0 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 70% | ||
| Jack Bech WRIR | #9 | 24.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 47% | ||
| Cody White WR | #9 | 16.0 | 1.1 | 2.7 | |||
| Brock Bowers TE ▲ | #16 | 91.0 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 91% | ||
| Michael Mayer TE | #16 | 42.6 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 81% | ||
| Ian Thomas TE ▼Q | #16 | 15.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 26% |
Passing touchdowns Beta
How many TD passes each starter throws, from his rate, his team’s expected points, red-zone share and the defense. Research, not a lean: the model is being graded in the background first (3-7 on priced lines so far).
| Quarterback | Expected | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | Book line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith NYJ vs LV | 1.5 | 78% | 44% | 19% | O/U 1.5 (-110 / -120) · our Over chance 44% · book's no-vig 49% |
| Kirk Cousins LV vs NYJ | 1.4 | 74% | 39% | 15% | O/U 1.5 (-119 / -107) · our Over chance 39% · book's no-vig 51% |
Cheat sheet
Every game this season
The highest number each player has reached in every game he has played this season. Softest defenses first; injured players left off.
- B. Bowers LV @ NYJ: 70+ Rec Yards5/5 this season · missed 2
Pro members also see this week’s sportsbook price for each line, and the chance it needs. Get Pro
Research, not picks. In 2025, lines like these were reached again the next game 83% of the time: 84% against the 10 softest defenses, 80% against the 10 toughest. Sportsbooks usually price them at about that chance or higher, so a streak alone isn’t an edge.
Hit in 80%+ of his games
Numbers a book sells at -200 or better that he has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season. Best hit rates first.
- A. Jeanty LV @ NYJ: 28+ Rec Yards6/7 this season
- K. Cousins LV @ NYJ: 2+ Pass TD6/7 this season
- K. Cousins LV @ NYJ: 241+ Pass Yards6/7 this season
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Create a free accountResearch, not picks. The price column says what the book thinks of the hit rate.
LV @ NYJ chalk combo Beta
Lines priced around -250 to -500 that each player has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season, put together within one game so the combo pays between roughly -130 and +200; the bands are guidance, so a leg or a combo a little outside them still makes the cut when the numbers are good. Our chance is the legs multiplied; each price is that leg’s best book, and a same-game parlay at one book will price a touch differently.
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Sign up freeResearch, not a promise: a combo loses when any leg misses, and legs from one game can miss together. 21+ · Gamble responsibly.
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Where and weather
MetLife Stadium. 62°F, wind 3 mph, 0% chance of rain.
What stands out
- Soft spot: LV allow 124.9 rushing yards a game to running backs, the most in the league. Braelon Allen averages 59.7.
- Tough spot: NYJ allow only 202.9 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, 5th fewest. Kirk Cousins averages 268.1.
Worked out automatically from this week’s numbers. Notes to help you think, not picks.
Our picks for this game
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.For members.
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge