CLE @ PIT
Week 8 · · PIT -3.5 · total 39.5
Offense vs defense rankings
PIT offense vs CLE defense
| Per game | PIT offense | CLE defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.9#22 | 20.9#12 |
| Total yards | 348.9#18 | 337.1#14 |
| Passing yards | 242.7#18 | 220.7#8 |
| Rushing yards | 106.1#20 | 116.4#20 |
| Yards per play | 5.22#21 | 5.10#9 |
| Third downs converted | 39%#22 | 39%#13 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 50%#28 | 53%#10 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 3.1#28 | 2.9#6 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 1.0#15 | 1.3#13 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
CLE offense vs PIT defense
| Per game | CLE offense | PIT defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.0#28 | 19.7#5 |
| Total yards | 318.4#24 | 321.0#7 |
| Passing yards | 211.7#23 | 230.0#13 |
| Rushing yards | 106.7#19 | 91.0#7 |
| Yards per play | 5.07#23 | 5.04#7 |
| Third downs converted | 33%#30 | 35%#7 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 56%#19 | 46%#6 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 3.6#32 | 2.6#10 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 1.1#16 | 1.4#8 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
Player Stats
Pittsburgh Steelers players
Per game this season. The second column is where CLE rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs CLE defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers QB | #8 | 3.3 | 242.7 | 100% | |||
| Jaylen Warren RB | #24 | 42.0 | 3.4 | 80.1 | 4.9 | 69% | |
| Rico Dowdle RB | #24 | 20.5 | 3.3 | 29.5 | 4.3 | 36% | |
| DK Metcalf WR | #20 | 53.4 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 8.3 | 94% | |
| Germie Bernard WR ▲ | #20 | 42.3 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 6.2 | 93% | |
| Michael Pittman WR ▼IR | #20 | 29.7 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 73% | ||
| Brandon Smith WR | #20 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 49% | ||
| Roman Wilson WR ▼IR | #20 | 37.6 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 32% | ||
| Darnell Washington TE | #17 | 22.9 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 64% | ||
| Pat Freiermuth TE | #17 | 28.6 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 4.7 | 63% |
Cleveland Browns players
Per game this season. The second column is where PIT rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs PIT defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson QB | #13 | 30.7 | 211.7 | 100% | |||
| Quinshon Judkins RB ▼ | #6 | 18.3 | 3.2 | 52.8 | 3.5 | 53% | |
| Dylan Sampson RB ▲ | #6 | 16.0 | 1.5 | 22.5 | 1.5 | 46% | |
| Raheim Sanders RBIR | #6 | 14.8 | 2.2 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 32% | |
| Jaleel McLaughlin RB ▲ | #6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 14.4 | 1.2 | 31% | |
| Audric Estimé RB | #6 | 19.0 | 30% | ||||
| Denzel Boston WR | #16 | 53.1 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 90% | ||
| KC Concepcion WR ▲ | #16 | 45.0 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 80% | |
| Jerry Jeudy WR | #16 | 28.5 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 62% | ||
| Isaiah Bond WR ▲ | #16 | 28.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 42% | ||
| Malachi Corley WR | #16 | 16% | |||||
| Harold Fannin Jr. TE | #8 | 36.7 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 86% | ||
| Blake Whiteheart TE ▼ | #8 | 9.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 27% |
Passing touchdowns Beta
How many TD passes each starter throws, from his rate, his team’s expected points, red-zone share and the defense. Research, not a lean: the model is being graded in the background first (3-7 on priced lines so far).
| Quarterback | Expected | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | Book line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers PIT vs CLE | 1.3 | 73% | 38% | 14% | O/U 1.5 (+150 / -200) · our Over chance 38% · book's no-vig 38% |
| Deshaun Watson CLE vs PIT | 1.1 | 65% | 28% | 9% | O/U 0.5 (-246 / +189) · our Over chance 65% · book's no-vig 67% |
Cheat sheet
Hit in 80%+ of his games
Numbers a book sells at -200 or better that he has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season. Best hit rates first.
- J. Warren PIT vs CLE: 26+ Rec Yards7/7 this season
- A. Rodgers PIT vs CLE: 210+ Pass Yards6/7 this season
- Q. Judkins CLE @ PIT: 2+ Receptions5/6 this season
Pro members also see this week’s sportsbook price for each line, and the chance it needs. Get Pro
Research, not picks. The price column says what the book thinks of the hit rate.
CLE @ PIT chalk combo Beta
Lines priced around -250 to -500 that each player has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season, put together within one game so the combo pays between roughly -130 and +200; the bands are guidance, so a leg or a combo a little outside them still makes the cut when the numbers are good. Our chance is the legs multiplied; each price is that leg’s best book, and a same-game parlay at one book will price a touch differently.
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Where and weather
Acrisure Stadium. 68°F, wind 3 mph, 0% chance of rain.
What stands out
- Tough spot: PIT allow only 75.4 rushing yards a game to running backs, 6th fewest. Quinshon Judkins averages 52.8.
- PIT are missing 2 starters on offense: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR), Roman Wilson (WR).
Worked out automatically from this week’s numbers. Notes to help you think, not picks.
Our picks for this game
For members. Unlock with Pro $19
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.For members.
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge