KC @ DEN
Week 8 · · KC -1.5 · total 40.5
Offense vs defense rankings
DEN offense vs KC defense
| Per game | DEN offense | KC defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.6#25 | 17.2#2 |
| Total yards | 276.4#31 | 329.0#9 |
| Passing yards | 181.6#28 | 229.5#12 |
| Rushing yards | 94.9#24 | 99.5#13 |
| Yards per play | 4.81#27 | 5.06#8 |
| Third downs converted | 32%#31 | 42%#21 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 63%#13 | 31%#2 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 1.3#4 | 1.3#29 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 0.7#7 | 1.5#4 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
KC offense vs DEN defense
| Per game | KC offense | DEN defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.8#14 | 20.1#7 |
| Total yards | 387.2#5 | 369.3#23 |
| Passing yards | 245.7#16 | 236.0#17 |
| Rushing yards | 141.5#5 | 133.3#28 |
| Yards per play | 6.47#3 | 5.12#10 |
| Third downs converted | 40%#14 | 43%#22 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 56%#18 | 46%#5 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 1.2#3 | 3.0#4 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 0.7#4 | 1.4#8 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
Player Stats
Denver Broncos players
Per game this season. The second column is where KC rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs KC defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix QB | #12 | 15.7 | 181.6 | 100% | |||
| Jonah Coleman RB ▲ | #5 | 11.3 | 1.7 | 31.0 | 1.7 | 49% | |
| J.K. Dobbins RB ▼ | #5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 41.9 | 1.3 | 38% | |
| RJ Harvey RBQ | #5 | 36.2 | 4.2 | 14.5 | 4.7 | 33% | |
| Courtland Sutton WR | #4 | 24.0 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 74% | ||
| Jaylen Waddle WRQ | #4 | 39.4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 61% | |
| Pat Bryant WRIR | #4 | 33.3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 53% | |
| Troy Franklin WR ▲ | #4 | 11.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 49% | |
| Marvin Mims Jr. WR | #4 | 16.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 27% | |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR ▲ | #4 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 25% | ||
| Adam Trautman TE ▲ | #27 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 61% | ||
| Evan Engram TE ▼ | #27 | 19.4 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 46% | ||
| Nate Adkins TE | #27 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 39% |
Kansas City Chiefs players
Per game this season. The second column is where DEN rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs DEN defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes QB | #17 | 11.8 | 245.7 | 100% | |||
| Kenneth Walker III RB | #21 | 19.3 | 3.0 | 116.8 | 4.5 | 74% | |
| Emmett Johnson RB | #21 | 18.2 | 1.5 | 10.3 | 1.8 | 28% | |
| Xavier Worthy WR | #11 | 36.2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 86% | ||
| Rashee Rice WR ▲ | #11 | 63.3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 78% | ||
| Jalen Royals WR ▲ | #11 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 71% | ||
| Andrew Armstrong WR | #11 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 64% | ||
| Tyquan Thornton WR ▲IR | #11 | 54.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 55% | ||
| Cyrus Allen WR ▲ | #11 | 11.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 23% | ||
| Travis Kelce TEQ | #25 | 57.2 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 75% | ||
| Noah Gray TE | #25 | 26.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 59% |
Passing touchdowns Beta
How many TD passes each starter throws, from his rate, his team’s expected points, red-zone share and the defense. Research, not a lean: the model is being graded in the background first (3-7 on priced lines so far).
| Quarterback | Expected | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | Book line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes KC vs DEN | 1.3 | 72% | 36% | 14% | O/U 1.5 (+166 / -215) · our Over chance 36% · book's no-vig 36% |
| Bo Nix DEN vs KC | 1.1 | 69% | 32% | 11% | O/U 1.5 (+160 / -215) · our Over chance 32% · book's no-vig 36% |
Cheat sheet
Every game this season
The highest number each player has reached in every game he has played this season. Softest defenses first; injured players left off.
- J. Dobbins DEN vs KC: 20+ Rush Yards7/7 this seasonTough matchup: KC allow the 28th most rushing yards to running backs
Pro members also see this week’s sportsbook price for each line, and the chance it needs. Get Pro
Research, not picks. In 2025, lines like these were reached again the next game 83% of the time: 84% against the 10 softest defenses, 80% against the 10 toughest. Sportsbooks usually price them at about that chance or higher, so a streak alone isn’t an edge.
Hit in 80%+ of his games
Numbers a book sells at -200 or better that he has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season. Best hit rates first.
Pro members also see this week’s sportsbook price for each line, and the chance it needs. Get Pro
Research, not picks. The price column says what the book thinks of the hit rate.
KC @ DEN chalk combo Beta
Lines priced around -250 to -500 that each player has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season, put together within one game so the combo pays between roughly -130 and +200; the bands are guidance, so a leg or a combo a little outside them still makes the cut when the numbers are good. Our chance is the legs multiplied; each price is that leg’s best book, and a same-game parlay at one book will price a touch differently.
The legs and their book prices are free with an account.
Sign up freeResearch, not a promise: a combo loses when any leg misses, and legs from one game can miss together. 21+ · Gamble responsibly.
Ask getBettor
Ask about any player, game or bet and get an answer from our numbers only. Part of Pro: 50 questions a week (Pro + Live 100).
Sign inEstimates from our data, not promises. Bets lose. 21+. If betting stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Where and weather
Empower Field at Mile High. 61°F, wind 5 mph, 5% chance of rain.
What stands out
- Tough spot: KC allow only 122.0 receiving yards a game to receivers, 4th fewest. Jaylen Waddle averages 39.4.
- Tough spot: KC allow only 73.7 rushing yards a game to running backs, 5th fewest. J.K. Dobbins averages 41.9.
Worked out automatically from this week’s numbers. Notes to help you think, not picks.
Our picks for this game
For members. Unlock with Pro $19
?
A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.For members.
?
Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge