ATL @ TB
Week 8 · · TB -2.5 · total 43.5
Offense vs defense rankings
TB offense vs ATL defense
| Per game | TB offense | ATL defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.1#17 | 24.7#20 |
| Total yards | 315.0#26 | 360.3#19 |
| Passing yards | 168.6#31 | 271.4#29 |
| Rushing yards | 146.4#3 | 88.9#4 |
| Yards per play | 4.82#26 | 5.27#12 |
| Third downs converted | 39%#16 | 43%#23 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 55%#21 | 67%#20 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 3.1#28 | 2.4#12 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 1.6#25 | 1.3#13 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
ATL offense vs TB defense
| Per game | ATL offense | TB defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.4#10 | 21.6#14 |
| Total yards | 351.1#17 | 311.0#4 |
| Passing yards | 211.3#24 | 233.7#14 |
| Rushing yards | 139.9#6 | 77.3#2 |
| Yards per play | 5.68#10 | 5.13#11 |
| Third downs converted | 39%#20 | 37%#10 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 67%#11 | 53%#10 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 2.3#17 | 2.3#16 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 1.4#22 | 1.4#8 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
Player Stats
Tampa Bay Buccaneers players
Per game this season. The second column is where ATL rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs ATL defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalon Daniels QB | #29 | 0.3 | 39.0 | 167.0 | 0.3 | 100% | |
| Baker Mayfield QB ▼ | #29 | 16.5 | 169.8 | 90% | |||
| Bucky Irving RB ▲ | #12 | 11.1 | 2.6 | 79.7 | 3.3 | 72% | |
| Kenny Gainwell RB ▼Q | #12 | 8.7 | 1.7 | 21.3 | 2.4 | 23% | |
| Sean Tucker RB | #12 | 26.7 | 14% | ||||
| Emeka Egbuka WR ▲OUT | #25 | 40.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 8.2 | 86% | |
| Chris Godwin Jr. WR ▲ | #25 | 34.7 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 83% | |
| Ted Hurst III WR ▼ | #25 | 28.0 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 53% | ||
| Tez Johnson WR ▲ | #25 | 25.4 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 50% | |
| David Sills WR | #25 | 25% | |||||
| Cade Otton TE ▼ | #24 | 26.6 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 95% | ||
| Payne Durham TE | #24 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 47% | ||
| Bauer Sharp TE | #24 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 15% |
Atlanta Falcons players
Per game this season. The second column is where TB rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs TB defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. QB | #14 | 0.8 | 231.4 | 100% | |||
| Cooper Rush QB | #14 | 10.0 | 114.5 | 79% | |||
| Bijan Robinson RB ▲ | #2 | 29.0 | 3.6 | 100.6 | 4.6 | 80% | |
| Brian Robinson RB ▼OUT | #2 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 35.2 | 1.0 | 18% | |
| Drake London WR | #10 | 88.0 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 91% | |
| Jahan Dotson WR | #10 | 34.6 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 71% | ||
| Olamide Zaccheaus WR ▲Q | #10 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 55% | ||
| Zachariah Branch WR ▲ | #10 | 9.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 35% | |
| Chris Blair WR ▼ | #10 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 15% | ||
| Charlie Woerner TE ▲ | #23 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 72% | |
| Kyle Pitts TE ▲ | #23 | 27.3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 67% | ||
| Austin Hooper TE | #23 | 13.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 28% | ||
| Nick Muse TE | #23 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 18% |
Passing touchdowns Beta
How many TD passes each starter throws, from his rate, his team’s expected points, red-zone share and the defense. Research, not a lean: the model is being graded in the background first (3-7 on priced lines so far).
| Quarterback | Expected | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | Book line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalon Daniels TB vs ATL | 1.5 | 77% | 44% | 19% | no book price |
| Baker Mayfield TB vs ATL | 1.5 | 77% | 43% | 18% | O/U 1.5 (+124 / -158) · our Over chance 43% · book's no-vig 42% |
Cheat sheet
Hit in 80%+ of his games
Numbers a book sells at -200 or better that he has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season. Best hit rates first.
- C. Godwin Jr. TB vs ATL: 25+ Rec Yards7/7 this season
Pro members also see this week’s sportsbook price for each line, and the chance it needs. Get Pro
Research, not picks. The price column says what the book thinks of the hit rate.
ATL @ TB chalk combo Beta
Lines priced around -250 to -500 that each player has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season, put together within one game so the combo pays between roughly -130 and +200; the bands are guidance, so a leg or a combo a little outside them still makes the cut when the numbers are good. Our chance is the legs multiplied; each price is that leg’s best book, and a same-game parlay at one book will price a touch differently.
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Where and weather
Raymond James Stadium. 78°F, wind 12 mph, 78% chance of rain.
What stands out
- Tough spot: TB allow only 64.9 rushing yards a game to running backs, 2nd fewest. Bijan Robinson averages 100.6.
- Soft spot: ATL allow 271.4 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, 4th most. Baker Mayfield averages 169.8.
Worked out automatically from this week’s numbers. Notes to help you think, not picks.
Our picks for this game
For members. Unlock with Pro $19
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.For members.
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge