NE @ MIA
Week 8 · · NE -7 · total 43.5
Offense vs defense rankings
MIA offense vs NE defense
| Per game | MIA offense | NE defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16.3#30 | 20.4#9 |
| Total yards | 307.7#28 | 334.3#13 |
| Passing yards | 176.2#30 | 239.0#19 |
| Rushing yards | 131.5#7 | 95.3#8 |
| Yards per play | 5.25#20 | 5.41#15 |
| Third downs converted | 41%#11 | 37%#8 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 60%#15 | 59%#13 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 2.7#23 | 2.4#12 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 1.3#21 | 1.0#17 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
NE offense vs MIA defense
| Per game | NE offense | MIA defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.9#19 | 26.2#25 |
| Total yards | 383.4#7 | 346.3#16 |
| Passing yards | 261.4#9 | 236.2#18 |
| Rushing yards | 122.0#11 | 110.2#16 |
| Yards per play | 6.15#4 | 5.96#26 |
| Third downs converted | 41%#12 | 54%#31 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 55%#21 | 65%#19 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 1.9#11 | 1.0#32 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 2.0#31 | 0.8#29 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
Player Stats
Miami Dolphins players
Per game this season. The second column is where NE rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs NE defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis QB | #19 | 37.2 | 176.2 | 100% | |||
| Ollie Gordon II RB ▲ | #14 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 67.8 | 1.6 | 74% | |
| De'Von Achane RB ▼IR | #14 | 16.3 | 2.3 | 42.3 | 4.0 | 41% | |
| DJ Herman RB | #14 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 33% | ||
| Jaylen Wright RB | #14 | 7.2 | 0.2 | 13% | |||
| Malik Washington WRQ | #18 | 48.2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 80% | |
| Caleb Douglas WR ▼ | #18 | 61.0 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 68% | ||
| Chris Bell WR | #18 | 19.5 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 60% | |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. WR | #18 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 40% | ||
| Jalen Tolbert WR | #18 | 11.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 23% | ||
| Greg Dulcich TEQ | #18 | 42.6 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 70% | ||
| Will Kacmarek TEQ | #18 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 38% |
New England Patriots players
Per game this season. The second column is where MIA rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs MIA defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye QB | #18 | 30.1 | 254.9 | 100% | |||
| Rhamondre Stevenson RB | #22 | 29.1 | 2.9 | 40.7 | 3.4 | 65% | |
| TreVeyon Henderson RB ▼Q | #22 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 33.8 | 1.2 | 24% | |
| Corey Kiner RB ▲ | #22 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 21.6 | 0.3 | 15% | |
| A.J. Brown WR ▲Q | #3 | 33.7 | 3.0 | 6.7 | 84% | ||
| Efton Chism III WR ▲ | #3 | 19.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 63% | |
| DeMario Douglas WR | #3 | 36.6 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 62% | ||
| Mack Hollins WR ▼IR | #3 | 52.3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 59% | ||
| Kyle Williams WR ▲ | #3 | 21.0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 38% | ||
| Hunter Henry TE | #29 | 42.3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 76% | ||
| Eli Raridon TE | #29 | 28.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 56% | ||
| Cameron Latu TE ▲ | #29 | 26% |
Passing touchdowns Beta
How many TD passes each starter throws, from his rate, his team’s expected points, red-zone share and the defense. Research, not a lean: the model is being graded in the background first (3-7 on priced lines so far).
| Quarterback | Expected | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | Book line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye NE vs MIA | 1.6 | 81% | 49% | 23% | O/U 1.5 (-140 / +105) · our Over chance 49% · book's no-vig 54% |
| Malik Willis MIA vs NE | 1.1 | 66% | 30% | 10% | O/U 0.5 (-217 / +168) · our Over chance 66% · book's no-vig 65% |
Cheat sheet
NE @ MIA chalk combo Beta
Lines priced around -250 to -500 that each player has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season, put together within one game so the combo pays between roughly -130 and +200; the bands are guidance, so a leg or a combo a little outside them still makes the cut when the numbers are good. Our chance is the legs multiplied; each price is that leg’s best book, and a same-game parlay at one book will price a touch differently.
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Where and weather
Hard Rock Stadium. 77°F, wind 14 mph, 85% chance of rain.
What stands out
- Tough spot: MIA allow only 115.5 receiving yards a game to receivers, 3rd fewest. Mack Hollins averages 52.3.
- Soft spot: MIA allow 74.7 receiving yards a game to tight ends, 4th most. Hunter Henry averages 42.3.
Worked out automatically from this week’s numbers. Notes to help you think, not picks.
Our picks for this game
For members. Unlock with Pro $19
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.For members.
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge