BUF @ MIN
Week 9 · · BUF -2.5 · total 47.5
Offense vs defense rankings
MIN offense vs BUF defense
| Per game | MIN offense | BUF defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.8#24 | 28.5#30 |
| Total yards | 300.7#29 | 399.7#31 |
| Passing yards | 181.3#29 | 298.7#31 |
| Rushing yards | 119.3#12 | 101.0#15 |
| Yards per play | 4.84#24 | 5.66#21 |
| Third downs converted | 38%#23 | 46%#26 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 47%#31 | 73%#27 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 3.0#25 | 1.8#22 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 0.7#4 | 1.0#17 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
BUF offense vs MIN defense
| Per game | BUF offense | MIN defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 32.8#1 | 12.3#1 |
| Total yards | 399.5#4 | 278.7#2 |
| Passing yards | 250.7#11 | 180.8#2 |
| Rushing yards | 148.8#2 | 97.8#10 |
| Yards per play | 6.60#1 | 4.47#2 |
| Third downs converted | 49%#4 | 28%#3 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 74%#3 | 23%#1 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 2.0#12 | 3.5#1 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 1.5#24 | 1.7#3 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
Player Stats
Minnesota Vikings players
Per game this season. The second column is where BUF rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs BUF defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray QB | #31 | 30.8 | 198.5 | 100% | |||
| Carson Wentz QB | #31 | 2.5 | 138.0 | 92% | |||
| Jordan Mason RB ▲ | #13 | 63.5 | 1.0 | 64% | |||
| Aaron Jones RB ▼ | #13 | 12.0 | 2.2 | 72.7 | 3.2 | 56% | |
| Justin Jefferson WR ▲ | #26 | 60.4 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 91% | ||
| Jordan Addison WR | #26 | 36.6 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 5.0 | 83% | |
| Jauan Jennings WR ▼ | #26 | 8.6 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 63% | ||
| Tai Felton WR ▼ | #26 | 10.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 37% | ||
| Myles Price WR | #26 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 12% | |
| Ben Yurosek TE | #30 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 55% | ||
| Josh Oliver TE ▼IR | #30 | 15.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 51% | ||
| T.J. Hockenson TE ▼ | #30 | 39.5 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 40% | ||
| Gavin Bartholomew TE ▲ | #30 | 18.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 37% |
Buffalo Bills players
Per game this season. The second column is where MIN rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs MIN defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen QB | #2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 40.0 | 250.7 | 0.2 | 100% |
| James Cook RB | #15 | 14.8 | 1.7 | 104.5 | 2.3 | 64% | |
| Ty Johnson RB | #15 | 38.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 20% | |
| Ray Davis RBQ | #15 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 15% | |
| Keon Coleman WR ▲ | #5 | 47.2 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 78% | ||
| Khalil Shakir WR | #5 | 48.3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 65% | ||
| Skyler Bell WR | #5 | 1.5 | 53% | ||||
| DJ Moore WRQ | #5 | 44.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 5.0 | 52% | |
| Josh Palmer WR ▼ | #5 | 29.3 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 25% | ||
| Dalton Kincaid TEQ | #5 | 52.5 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 71% | ||
| Dawson Knox TE | #5 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 70% | ||
| Jackson Hawes TE | #5 | 0.3 | 41% |
Passing touchdowns Beta
How many TD passes each starter throws, from his rate, his team’s expected points, red-zone share and the defense. Research, not a lean: the model is being graded in the background first (3-7 on priced lines so far).
| Quarterback | Expected | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | Book line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray MIN vs DET | 1.4 | 75% | 40% | 16% | O/U 1.5 (+111 / -142) · our Over chance 40% · book's no-vig 45% |
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Where and weather
Forecast not out yet.
What stands out
- Tough spot: MIN allow only 180.8 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, 2nd fewest. Josh Allen averages 250.7.
- Soft spot: BUF allow 298.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, 2nd most. Kyler Murray averages 198.5.
Worked out automatically from this week’s numbers. Notes to help you think, not picks.
Our picks for this game
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.For members.
?
Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No lean shown