DEN @ CAR
Week 9 · · DEN -2.5 · total 44.5
Offense vs defense rankings
CAR offense vs DEN defense
| Per game | CAR offense | DEN defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.4#9 | 20.1#7 |
| Total yards | 383.1#8 | 369.3#23 |
| Passing yards | 281.1#3 | 236.0#17 |
| Rushing yards | 102.0#21 | 133.3#28 |
| Yards per play | 5.53#13 | 5.12#10 |
| Third downs converted | 39%#21 | 43%#22 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 68%#10 | 46%#5 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 3.3#30 | 3.0#4 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 1.1#16 | 1.4#8 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
DEN offense vs CAR defense
| Per game | DEN offense | CAR defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.6#25 | 27.6#27 |
| Total yards | 276.4#31 | 360.3#19 |
| Passing yards | 181.6#28 | 219.6#7 |
| Rushing yards | 94.9#24 | 140.7#30 |
| Yards per play | 4.81#27 | 5.42#17 |
| Third downs converted | 32%#31 | 46%#27 |
| Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown | 63%#13 | 80%#30 |
| Sacks (taken / made) | 1.3#4 | 1.6#26 |
| Turnovers (given / taken) | 0.7#7 | 1.1#15 |
#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.
Player Stats
Carolina Panthers players
Per game this season. The second column is where DEN rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs DEN defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young QB | #17 | 4.9 | 274.4 | 89% | |||
| Chuba Hubbard RB ▲ | #21 | 21.4 | 3.1 | 77.1 | 3.7 | 77% | |
| Jonathon Brooks RBIR | #21 | 21.5 | 1.0 | 15.0 | 1.5 | 25% | |
| Trevor Etienne RB ▲ | #21 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 19% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan WR | #11 | 81.3 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 79% | ||
| Jalen Coker WR ▼ | #11 | 60.7 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 76% | ||
| Xavier Legette WRIR | #11 | 32.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 52% | ||
| John Metchie III WR ▲ | #11 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 46% | ||
| Brycen Tremayne WR ▼ | #11 | 18.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 32% | ||
| David Moore WR | #11 | 5.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 12% | ||
| Tommy Tremble TE | #25 | 22.1 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 54% | ||
| Darren Waller TE | #25 | 29.9 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 54% | ||
| Mitchell Evans TE | #25 | 18.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 41% |
Denver Broncos players
Per game this season. The second column is where CAR rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.
| Player | vs CAR defense | Receiving yards | Receptions | Rushing yards | Passing yards | Targets | On field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix QB | #7 | 15.7 | 181.6 | 100% | |||
| Jonah Coleman RB ▲ | #29 | 11.3 | 1.7 | 31.0 | 1.7 | 49% | |
| J.K. Dobbins RB ▼ | #29 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 41.9 | 1.3 | 38% | |
| RJ Harvey RBQ | #29 | 36.2 | 4.2 | 14.5 | 4.7 | 33% | |
| Courtland Sutton WR | #15 | 24.0 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 74% | ||
| Jaylen Waddle WRQ | #15 | 39.4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 61% | |
| Pat Bryant WRIR | #15 | 33.3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 53% | |
| Troy Franklin WR ▲ | #15 | 11.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 49% | |
| Marvin Mims Jr. WR | #15 | 16.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 27% | |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR ▲ | #15 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 25% | ||
| Adam Trautman TE ▲ | #15 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 61% | ||
| Evan Engram TE ▼ | #15 | 19.4 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 46% | ||
| Nate Adkins TE | #15 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 39% |
Passing touchdowns Beta
How many TD passes each starter throws, from his rate, his team’s expected points, red-zone share and the defense. Research, not a lean: the model is being graded in the background first (3-7 on priced lines so far).
| Quarterback | Expected | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | Book line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young CAR vs GB | 1.3 | 74% | 39% | 15% | O/U 1.5 (-115 / -115) · our Over chance 39% · book's no-vig 50% |
| Bo Nix DEN vs KC | 1.1 | 69% | 32% | 11% | O/U 1.5 (+160 / -215) · our Over chance 32% · book's no-vig 36% |
Cheat sheet
DEN @ CAR chalk combo Beta
Lines priced around -250 to -500 that each player has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season, put together within one game so the combo pays between roughly -130 and +200; the bands are guidance, so a leg or a combo a little outside them still makes the cut when the numbers are good. Our chance is the legs multiplied; each price is that leg’s best book, and a same-game parlay at one book will price a touch differently.
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Where and weather
Bank of America Stadium. 77°F, wind 9 mph, 1% chance of rain.
What stands out
- Soft spot: CAR allow 115.6 rushing yards a game to running backs, 4th most. J.K. Dobbins averages 41.9.
- Bigger role lately for DEN: Jonah Coleman. Sportsbook numbers can lag behind a role change.
Worked out automatically from this week’s numbers. Notes to help you think, not picks.
Our picks for this game
For members. Unlock with Pro $19
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A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.For members.
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Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.No edge