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GB @ NE

Week 9 · · NE -2.5 · total 47.5

Offense vs defense rankings

NE offense vs GB defense

Per gameNE offenseGB defense allows
Points22.9#1920.5#11
Total yards383.4#7331.8#12
Passing yards261.4#9220.9#9
Rushing yards122.0#11110.9#17
Yards per play6.15#44.77#3
Third downs converted41%#1242%#20
Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown55%#2161%#17
Sacks (taken / made)1.9#112.8#7
Turnovers (given / taken)2.0#311.9#1

#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.

GB offense vs NE defense

Per gameGB offenseNE defense allows
Points21.4#2320.4#9
Total yards341.4#19334.3#13
Passing yards280.8#4239.0#19
Rushing yards60.6#3295.3#8
Yards per play5.45#155.41#15
Third downs converted39%#1937%#8
Red-zone trips ending in a touchdown54%#2459%#13
Sacks (taken / made)1.8#102.4#12
Turnovers (given / taken)1.3#201.0#17

#1 is the best of 32 teams on each side. Colors are from the offense’s side: green is good for the offense, orange is the middle, red is bad.

Player Stats

New England Patriots players

Per game this season. The second column is where GB rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.

Playervs GB defenseReceiving yardsReceptionsRushing yardsPassing yardsTargetsOn field
Drake Maye QB#930.1254.9100%
Rhamondre Stevenson RB#1829.12.940.73.465%
TreVeyon Henderson RB ▼Q#187.50.833.81.224%
Corey Kiner RB ▲#182.30.321.60.315%
A.J. Brown WR ▲Q#2133.73.06.784%
Efton Chism III WR ▲#2119.01.70.32.563%
DeMario Douglas WR#2136.63.34.962%
Mack Hollins WR ▼IR#2152.33.85.059%
Kyle Williams WR ▲#2121.00.91.738%
Hunter Henry TE#342.33.74.476%
Eli Raridon TE#328.02.02.756%
Cameron Latu TE ▲#326%

Green Bay Packers players

Per game this season. The second column is where NE rank at stopping his position (1st allows the least). Green is a soft matchup, orange the middle, red a tough one. Tap a player for his game log.

Playervs NE defenseReceiving yardsReceptionsRushing yardsPassing yardsTargetsOn field
Jordan Love QB#191.3280.8100%
Josh Jacobs RB#1434.05.537.56.562%
Chris Brooks RB ▼IR#146.00.817.51.329%
MarShawn Lloyd RB ▼#149.91.618.62.126%
Matthew Golden WRQ#1877.45.40.810.386%
Christian Watson WR ▼Q#1888.55.38.365%
Savion Williams WR#1828.02.710.33.058%
Jayden Reed WRIR#1812.02.04.030%
Skyy Moore WRIR#187.01.42.828%
Bo Melton WR#184.30.61.328%
J. Michael Sturdivant WR ▲#185.40.60.724%
Tucker Kraft TE#1843.84.40.66.188%
Jonnu Smith TEOUT#1823.51.52.025%
Mark Redman TE ▼#1814.51.01.525%

Passing touchdowns Beta

How many TD passes each starter throws, from his rate, his team’s expected points, red-zone share and the defense. Research, not a lean: the model is being graded in the background first (3-7 on priced lines so far).

QuarterbackExpected1+2+3+Book line
Jordan Love GB vs CAR1.681%49%23%O/U 1.5 (-163 / +128) · our Over chance 49% · book's no-vig 59%
Drake Maye NE vs MIA1.681%49%23%O/U 1.5 (-140 / +105) · our Over chance 49% · book's no-vig 54%

Cheat sheet

GB @ NE chalk combo Beta

Lines priced around -250 to -500 that each player has cleared in at least 80% of his games this season, put together within one game so the combo pays between roughly -130 and +200; the bands are guidance, so a leg or a combo a little outside them still makes the cut when the numbers are good. Our chance is the legs multiplied; each price is that leg’s best book, and a same-game parlay at one book will price a touch differently.

3 legs · about +136our chance 49%

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Research, not a promise: a combo loses when any leg misses, and legs from one game can miss together. 21+ · Gamble responsibly.

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Where and weather

Forecast not out yet.

What stands out

  • Tough spot: GB allow only 35.3 receiving yards a game to tight ends, 3rd fewest. Hunter Henry averages 42.3.
  • GB are missing 3 starters on offense: Chris Brooks (RB), Skyy Moore (WR), Jayden Reed (WR).
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Worked out automatically from this week’s numbers. Notes to help you think, not picks.

Our picks for this game

Best bet

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Safest bet
?A lower bar than the main line that the player clears more often. It pays less.

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Game call
?Our number and the sportsbook’s agree, so there is nothing to gain.

No edge

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